IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wlu/lcerpa/0117.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The downside of being upbeat: The effects of consumer optimism on real economic activity

Author

Listed:
  • Edda Claus, Viet Hoang Nguyen

    (Wilfrid Laurier University)

Abstract

Using a quarterly consumer survey, we propose two novel measures of consumer optimism, ex ante optimism and ex post optimism. We demonstrate that excessive optimism about future family finances impacts the real economy. The excessive optimism (ex ante optimism) compels consumers to save less and borrow more, putting upward pressure on consumption growth. When family finances improve persistently less than expected (ex post optimism), consumers cut back on credit and save more which puts downward pressure on consumption growth. This saving and borrowing channel of the optimism bias is robust to age and income.

Suggested Citation

  • Edda Claus, Viet Hoang Nguyen, 2019. "The downside of being upbeat: The effects of consumer optimism on real economic activity," LCERPA Working Papers 0117, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 May 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:0117
    Note: LCERPA Working Paper No. 2019-1. Online appendix is available at http://www.lcerpa.org/public/papers/LCERPA_2019_1_onlineappendix.pdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lcerpa.org/public/papers/LCERPA_2019_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bovi, Maurizio, 2009. "Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 563-574, August.
    2. J. A. García & Rosa Rodriguez-Sánchez & J. Fdez-Valdivia, 2016. "Why the referees’ reports I receive as an editor are so much better than the reports I receive as an author?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 106(3), pages 967-986, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luigi Giamboni & Emanuele Millemaci & Robert J. Waldmann, 2013. "Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income affect consumption," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 4004-4021, October.
    2. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    3. Ivana Drvenica & Giangiacomo Bravo & Lucija Vejmelka & Aleksandar Dekanski & Olgica Nedić, 2018. "Peer Review of Reviewers: The Author’s Perspective," Publications, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Margani, Patrizia, 2014. "Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-63.
    5. Kristoffer Persson, 2020. "Economic Reality, Economic Media and Individuals' Expectations," Papers 2007.13823, arXiv.org.
    6. Jorge Chamorro-Padial & Rosa Rodriguez-Sánchez & J. Fdez-Valdivia & J. A. Garcia, 2019. "An evolutionary explanation of assassins and zealots in peer review," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 120(3), pages 1373-1385, September.
    7. Roger Fernandez-Urbano & Nevena Kulic, 0. "Requiem for a Dream: Perceived Economic Conditions and Subjective Well-Being in Times of Prosperity and Economic Crisis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-21.
    8. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bovi, Maurizio & Cerqueti, Roy, 2016. "Bayesian estimation and entropy for economic dynamic stochastic models: An exploration of overconsumption," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 143-157.
    9. De Baets, Shari & Harvey, Nigel, 2018. "Forecasting from time series subject to sporadic perturbations: Effectiveness of different types of forecasting support," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 163-180.
    10. Sarah Brown & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer & Karl Taylor, 2020. "Financial Expectations and Household Consumption: Does Middle Inflation Matter?," Working Papers 2020002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    11. Maurizio Bovi, 2014. "Shocks and the Expectations Formation Process. A Tale of Two Expectations," Natural Field Experiments 00390, The Field Experiments Website.
    12. Rosa Rodriguez-Sánchez & J. A. García & J. Fdez-Valdivia, 2018. "Editorial decisions with informed and uninformed reviewers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(1), pages 25-43, October.
    13. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    14. Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2018. "Consumptor economicus: How do consumers form expectations on economic variables?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 254-275.
    15. Witt, Ulrich & Binder, Martin, 2013. "Disentangling motivational and experiential aspects of “utility” – A neuroeconomics perspective," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 27-40.
    16. Michael Dietrich, 2010. "Efficiency and profitability: a panel data analysis of UK manufacturing firms, 1993-2007," Working Papers 2010003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2010.
    17. Maurizio Bovi & Roy Cerqueti, 2016. "Forecasting macroeconomic fundamentals in economic crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 247(2), pages 451-469, December.
    18. Robert Gausden & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2016. "Would information on consumer confidence have helped to predict UK household expenditure during the recent economic crisis?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(18), pages 1695-1709, April.
    19. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    20. Abildgren, Kim & Hansen, Niels Lynggård & Kuchler, Andreas, 2018. "Overoptimism and house price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-14.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cognitive Bias; Saving; Borrowing; Consumption; Expectations Survey Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:0117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbwluca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Andrei Kovacsik (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbwluca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.