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Specification Of A Model To Measure - The Value Of Travel Time Savings From Binomial Data


  • Mogens Fosgerau



This paper develops a semiparametric methodology for the evaluation of the distribution of the value of travel time savings (VTTS) from binary choice data. Fosgerau (2004) deals with the case of just one time component. This paper extends to the case of several time components. The methodology is applied to a recent large dataset of about 2200 car drivers who undertook a series of stated choice experiments. The VTTS is a fundamental concept in transport economics, being the main yardstick against which transport investments are measured. However, the methodology presented is generally applicable to evaluation of willingness to pay from binary choice data. Current standard-of-practice methodology applies a mixing distribution to a binary choice model in order to take account of individual heterogeneity. While this is definitely progress, there remains the problem of deciding which mixing distribution to apply. This problem is avoided here by using a nonparametric distribution. For prediction of choices, the choice of mixing distribution may matter less but it is absolutely crucial for evaluating willingness to pay. Even so, it is rare to see a justification for the choice of mixing distribution. The paper tests a range of parametric distributions against the semiparametric alternative.

Suggested Citation

  • Mogens Fosgerau, 2005. "Specification Of A Model To Measure - The Value Of Travel Time Savings From Binomial Data," ERSA conference papers ersa05p77, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p77

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643, April.
    2. Lewbel, Arthur & McFadden, Daniel & Linton, Oliver, 2011. "Estimating features of a distribution from binomial data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 170-188, June.
    3. David A. Hensher, 2001. "Measurement of the Valuation of Travel Time Savings," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 35(1), pages 71-98, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. DE BORGER, Bruno & FOSGERAU, Mogens, 2006. "Discrete choices and the trade off between money and time: Another test of the theory of reference-dependent preferences," Working Papers 2006034, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    2. De Borger, Bruno & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2007. "Discrete choices and the trade-off between money and time: A test of the theory of reference-dependent preferences," MPRA Paper 3904, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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