Credit Market Disequilibrium in Poland: Can We Find What We Expect? Non-Stationarity and the ???Min???Condition
This paper presents an empirical investigation of the disequilibrium hypothesis on the Polish loan market in the 1990s. Using data over this period of deep transition, we estimate a disequilibrium model with a standard maximum likelihood method. However, the estimates are highly counter-intuitive as regards the timing of the identified regimes. We show that the gap between the econometric evidence and the expected results may stem from the issue of stochastic non-stationarity in a disequilibrium setting based on the ???min??? condition. We find that the omission of one non-stationary variable of the cointegrating space or the absence of a ???structural??? cointegrating relationship in one or both regimes lead to a spurious configuration. In such a case, using, wrongly, the standard likelihood function, derived under the hypothesis of stationarity, may lead to non-convergent estimates of structural parameters and, as a consequence, to a fallacious regimes identification. Therefore, as the first approach to this issue, we estimate a disequilibrium model with stationary data. The empirical results are then robust and economically founded and correspond to the set and the timing of anticipated regimes.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109|
Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763-5850
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sealey, C W, Jr, 1979. "Credit Rationing in the Commercial Loan Market: Estimates of a Structural Model under Conditions of Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 689-702, June.
- Perez, Stephen J., 1998. "Testing for Credit Rationing: An Application of Disequilibrium Econometrics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 721-739, October.
- Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-1030, November.
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1993. "The role of credit market imperfections in the monetary transmission mechanism: arguments and evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Republic Of Poland; Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 02/128, International Monetary Fund.
- Kim, Hyun E., 1999. "Was the credit channel a key monetary transmission mechanism following the recent financial crisis in the Republic of Korea?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2103, The World Bank.
- Ceyla PazarbaÅŸioÄŸlu, 1997. "A Credit Crunch? Finland in the Aftermath of the Banking Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 315-327, September.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988.
"Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dale, Spencer & Haldane, Andrew G., 1995. "Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: Some sectoral estimates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1611-1626, December.
- Spencer Dale & Andrew Haldane, 1993. "Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: some sectoral estimates," Bank of England working papers 18, Bank of England.
- Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May.
- Laroque, Guy & Salanie, Bernard, 1997. "Normal estimators for cointegrating relationships," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 185-189, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)