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Identifying gazelles : expert panels vs. surveys as a means to identify firms with rapid growth potential

Author

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  • Fafchamps,Marcel
  • Woodruff,Christopher M.

Abstract

A business plan competition is conducted to test whether survey instruments or panel judges are able to identify the fastest growing firms. Participants submitted six- to eight-page business plans and defended them before a three- or four-judge panel. Applicants are surveyed shortly after they applied and one and two years after the competition. Follow-up surveys are used to construct measures of enterprise growth and baseline surveys and panel scores to construct measures of enterprise growth potential. A survey measure of ability correlates strongly with future growth, but the panel scores add to predictive power even after controlling for ability and other survey variables. The survey questions have more power to explain the variance in growth. Participants presenting before the panel were given a chance to win customized management training. Fourteen months after the training, there is no positive effect of the training on growth of the business.

Suggested Citation

  • Fafchamps,Marcel & Woodruff,Christopher M., 2016. "Identifying gazelles : expert panels vs. surveys as a means to identify firms with rapid growth potential," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7647, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7647
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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