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Developing rainfall-based index insurance in Morocco


  • Skees, Jerry*Gober, Stephanie*Varangis, Panos*Le


Cereal production accounts for about seventy percent of all agricultural land in Morocco. Cereal producer prices, influenced by the government, are higher than world prices. Production is divided into six broad agro-climatic zones. About half of cereal production is concentrated in the favorable, and intermediate zones; the rest occurs mostly in less favorable (arid and semi-arid) zones, with average annual rainfall below 450 millimeters. The authors assess the feasibility of rainfall-based index insurance, to provide effective, low-cost drought insurance for Moroccan farmers, and rural dwellers. Their analysis focuses on Morocco's three main cereal crops - hard wheat, soft wheat, and barley - using data on annual production, and planting from 1978-99. Maize is included in some of the analysis. The benefits of this program over the traditional insurance scheme are that it minimizes the risk of moral hazard, and adverse selection, and promotes a streamlined pay-out-process. These features make the program more attractive to international re-insurers, and investors in capital markets. A rainfall-indexed insurance product is feasible in Morocco, where the statistical correlation between rainfall, and cereal revenues is rather strong in seventeen provinces in the more favorable agro-climatic zones. Proportional rainfall insurance contracts, would pay the insured an amount based on the shortfall in actual rainfall, during a set period, compared with the trigger rainfall. The contracts could be purchased in any amount, allowing farmers to insure the full amount of their expected revenue, if they wish.

Suggested Citation

  • Skees, Jerry*Gober, Stephanie*Varangis, Panos*Le, 2001. "Developing rainfall-based index insurance in Morocco," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2577, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2577

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Skees, Jerry & Hazell, P. B. R. & Miranda, Mario, 1999. "New approaches to crop yield insurance in developing countries:," EPTD discussion papers 55, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Skees, Jerry R., 2000. "A role for capital markets in natural disasters: a piece of the food security puzzle," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 365-378, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paulson, Nicholas D. & Hart, Chad E., 2006. "A Spatial Approach to Addressing Weather Derivative Basis Risk: A Drought Insurance Example," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21249, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Juárez-Torres, Miriam & Sánchez-Aragón, Leonardo & Vedenov, Dmitry, 2017. "Weather Derivatives and Water Management in Developing Countries: An Application for an Irrigation District in Central Mexico," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(2), May.
    3. Chantarat, Sommarat & Mude, Andrew G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Turvey, Calum G., 2017. "Welfare Impacts of Index Insurance in the Presence of a Poverty Trap," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 119-138.
    4. Barnett, Barry J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Skees, Jerry R., 2008. "Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1766-1785, October.
    5. Bokusheva, Raushan, 2010. "Measuring the dependence structure between yield and weather variables," MPRA Paper 22786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Barnett, Barry J., 2004. "Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Raushan Bokusheva, 2011. "Measuring dependence in joint distributions of yield and weather variables," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(1), pages 120-141, May.
    8. Ahmet Göncü, 2011. "Pricing temperature-based weather derivatives in China," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 32-44, December.
    9. Markus Stowasser, 2011. "Modelling rain risk: a multi-order Markov chain model approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, December.
    10. Nancy McCarthy, 2003. "Demand for rainfall-index based insurance: a case study from Morocco," EPTD discussion papers 106, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Bokusheva, R. & Breustedt, G. & Heidelbach, O., 2007. "Reducing asymmetric information by alternative crop insurance schemes – Testing risk reduction of individual and index-based contracts," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 42, March.
    12. Farrin, Katie & Miranda, Mario J., 2015. "A heterogeneous agent model of credit-linked index insurance and farm technology adoption," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 199-211.
    13. George Rapsomanikis & Alexander Sarris, 2008. "Market Integration and Uncertainty: The Impact of Domestic and International Commodity Price Variability on Rural Household Income and Welfare in Ghana and Peru," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1354-1381.
    14. Li, Jiangcheng & Zhang, Chunmin & Liu, Jifa & Li, Zhen & Yang, Xuan, 2018. "An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 312-323.
    15. Zant, Wouter, 2008. "Hot Stuff: Index Insurance for Indian Smallholder Pepper Growers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1585-1606, September.
    16. Lin, Shanshan & Mullen, Jeffrey D. & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2009. "Spatial and Temporal On-Farm Risk Management - Crop Production Scheduling and Index Insurance Strategies," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49350, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Xu, Wei, 2006. "Modeling and Hedging Rain Risk," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21050, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Leif Erec Heimfarth & Oliver Musshoff, 2011. "Weather index-based insurances for farmers in the North China Plain: An analysis of risk reduction potential and basis risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 218-239, August.
    19. Carter, Michael R. & Galarza, Francisco & Boucher, Stephen, 2007. "Underwriting area-based yield insurance to crowd-in credit supply and demand," MPRA Paper 24326, University Library of Munich, Germany.


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