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How private investment reacts to changing macroeconomic conditions : the case of Chile in the 1980s

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  • Solimano, Andres

Abstract

This paper simulates a model of joint determination of private investment spending, aggregate investment profitability and the level of GDP for Chile. It addresses the following issues: (a) sharp cycles in economic activity - the boom of 1980-81, the steep recession of 1982-83, and the recovery afterward which increased the volatility of aggregate demand and discouraged investment; (b) sharp swings in the real exchange rate and real interest rates in the last decade which increased the variance of profitability causing an adverse effect on investment; (c) high real interest rates which restrained private investment; and (d) real appreciation and depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Solimano, Andres, 1989. "How private investment reacts to changing macroeconomic conditions : the case of Chile in the 1980s," Policy Research Working Paper Series 212, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
    2. Alexander H. Sarris, 1973. "A Bayesian Approach To Estimation Of Time-Varying Regression Coefficients," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 501-523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    4. Edward, Sebastian, 1986. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 501-508, August.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    6. Hausman, Jerry A., 1983. "Specification and estimation of simultaneous equation models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 391-448, Elsevier.
    7. Pagan, Adrian, 1980. "Some identification and estimation results for regression models with stochastically varying coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-363, August.
    8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    9. Buffie, Edward F., 1986. "Devaluation, investment and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 361-379, March.
    10. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    11. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1992. "Private Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Survey," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 7(1), pages 95-114, January.
    12. Ueda, Kazuo & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1986. "Financial Volatility and the q Theory of Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(29), pages 11-27, February.
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    1. Ebghaei, Felor, 2013. "مديريت عوامل موثر بر سرمايه گذاري بخش خصوصي در ايران [Management of Determinant Factors on Private Investment in Iran]," MPRA Paper 77908, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2017.
    2. Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "What Determines Private Investment? The Case of Pakistan," Finance Working Papers 22202, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Garrison, Charles B. & Lee, Feng-Yao, 1995. "The effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth rates: A cross-country study," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-317.
    4. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Barry Goodwin, 2000. "Determinants of private investment: a cross-regional empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(14), pages 1819-1829.
    5. Naveed H. Naqvi, 2002. "Crowding-in or Crowding-out? Modelling the Relationship between Public and Private Fixed Capital Formation Using Co-integration Analysis: The Case of Pakistan 1964-2000," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 255-276.
    6. Abdul Waheed, 2015. "Determinants of Domestic Private Investment: Test of Alternative Hypotheses for Pakistan," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 4(2), pages 35-43, April.
    7. Dinar, Ariel & Keck, Andrew, 1997. "Private irrigation investment in Colombia: effects of violence, macroeconomic policy, and environmental conditions," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, March.
    8. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    9. Comlanvi Jude EGGOH, 2009. "Développement financier et croissance : Une synthèse des contributions pionnières," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 442, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    10. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile's Economic Growth," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48.
    11. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Linking Investment and Fiscal Policies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/16, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Eliana Cardoso, 1991. "Capital Formation in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 3616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Stanley Fischer, 1992. "Macroeconomic Stability and Growth," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 29(87), pages 171-186.
    14. Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2001. "Determinants of public capital spending in less-developed countries," CCSO Working Papers 200107, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.

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