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Future inequality in Carbon Dioxide emissions and the projected impact of abatement proposals


  • Heil, Mark T.
  • Wodon, Quentin T.


The authors analyze inequality in future carbon emissions using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declining, but slowly. They also measure the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II (non-Eastern European high income) countries in 2010, focusing on their gap narrowing and reranking effects. Per capita emissions of Annex II and non-Annex II countries will probably not be substantially reranked unless the Annex II countries reduce their emissions by at least half (from 1990 levels) and emissions from non-Annex II countries continue growing unabated.

Suggested Citation

  • Heil, Mark T. & Wodon, Quentin T., 1999. "Future inequality in Carbon Dioxide emissions and the projected impact of abatement proposals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2084, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2084

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Yitzhaki, Shlomo & Lerman, Robert I, 1991. "Income Stratification and Income Inequality," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 37(3), pages 313-329, September.
    2. Lerman, Robert I. & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1995. "Changing Ranks and the Inequality Impacts of Taxes and Transfers," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(1), pages 45-59, March.
    3. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
    4. Welsch, Heinz, 1993. "A CO2 agreement proposal with flexible quotas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 748-756, July.
    5. Lerman, Robert I. & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1989. "Improving the accuracy of estimates of Gini coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 43-47, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Iqbal Irfany, 2015. "Inequality in emissions: Evidence from Indonesian households," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 177, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    2. Alison Stegman, 2005. "Convergence in Carbon Emissions Per Capita," Research Papers 0505, Macquarie University, Department of Economics.


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