Electricity Transition in MFMod : A Methodological Note with Applications

This paper describes power sector modeling methodologies for the World Bank’s macrostructural model — MFMod. Macrostructural models generally do not model sectors, such as the power sector, in detail, limiting their capacity to represent deep system transformation (for example, low-carbon energy transitions). The main constraints to adequate sector modeling are data availability and technological representation of the power system. Time-series data for specific production factors across sectors do not exist consistently for most countries in World Bank models. This paper describes two distinct methods to overcome this constraint: (i) using a more granular representation of the production function and (ii) linking the macrostructural model with the World Bank's electricity planning models. These methods provide a more nuanced technical representation of deep transformations, enabling discussions on their macroeconomic consequences. The paper provides results for Mauritania and South Africa. These methodologies serve as a blueprint for macroeconomic modeling of energy transitions in this class of models.