Social Exclusion : Concepts, Measurement, and a Global Estimate

There are multiple estimates of global monetary and multidimensional poverty, but there arestill no estimates of populations at risk of social exclusion worldwide. This paper fills this gap by estimatingthe share and number of populations at risk of exclusion globally and regionally. It develops a conceptual frameworkof social exclusion that builds on Sen’s capability approach and emphasizes the relative, multidimensional, and dynamicfeatures of exclusion. The paper also develops a macro counting measure of population groups that are particularlyvulnerable to exclusion based on identity, circumstances, and socioeconomic conditions. The empirical strategy surveysthe most reliable sources of vulnerable populations across countries and develops a protocol to avoid double-countingof individuals at risk of social exclusion. Overall, between 2.33 billion and 2.43 billion people—roughly 32 percent ofthe global population—are estimated to be at risk of being socially excluded. The South Asia and East Asia and Pacificregions contain 1.3 billion such people, with India and China alone home to 840 million of them. Meanwhile, 52percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is vulnerable to exclusion, the greatest share of any region. The paper alsodiscusses several implications of these estimates, emphasizing that policies targeting the poor might not besufficient to tackle social exclusion.