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Is running a marathon like running a business? Identifying occupational differences in overconfidence using long-distance running data

Author

Listed:
  • Hayk Amirkhanyan

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Michał Krawczyk

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Maciej Wilamowski

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

It is often claimed that certain career choices, notably running a business, are associated with excessive confidence in own capabilities. Such a link could partly explain e.g., the surprisingly high number of unsuccessful start-ups. We verify these claims in a sample of marathon runners. We take starting too fast and then slowing down in a marathon race as a proxy for overconfidence. In a sample of over 50 thousand runners, we match marathon pacing data with job titles that are partly reported by the runners themselves and partly identified by us (using runners’ names, years of birth, and places of residence to find their personal web sites, social media profiles etc., whenever possible). We observe that job categories have a significant impact on slowing down (as a proxy for overconfidence), also when we control for observable demographic factors (such as age, gender, place of residence). In particular, entrepreneurs tend to be more overconfident than the general population.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayk Amirkhanyan & Michał Krawczyk & Maciej Wilamowski, 2022. "Is running a marathon like running a business? Identifying occupational differences in overconfidence using long-distance running data," Working Papers 2022-03, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2022-03
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/1241/0
    File Function: First version, 2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen V. Burks & Jeffrey P. Carpenter & Lorenz Goette & Aldo Rustichini, 2013. "Overconfidence and Social Signalling," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 949-983.
    2. Brown, Rayna & Sarma, Neal, 2007. "CEO overconfidence, CEO dominance and corporate acquisitions," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 358-379.
    3. Pia Arenius & Swee-Hoon Chuah & Bronwyn Coate & Robert Hoffmann, 2021. "The economic psychology of creating and venturing: a comparative behavioural portrait of artists and entrepreneurs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 721-737, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; slowdown; occupational differences; gender differences; selection into professions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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