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An Asymmetric Model on Seigniorage and the Dynamics of Net Foreign Assets

Author

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  • Georg Dettmann

    () (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

Abstract

The emergence of international current account imbalances has dominated the economic debate for several years and has been considered one of the main reasons for the turbulences in the world economy since 2007. Economic theory suggests that an economy cannot run persistent current account deficits without depleting its net foreign assets. Nevertheless, for most of the 2000s the US net foreign liabilities grew at a rate below the one of the cumulative current account deficit. To investigate on the mechanisms that allow the US to do so, this paper sets up a two country DGE model with asymmetric liquidity constraints. The model will show that there is a permanent wealth transfer from the world to the US. The unique position of the US not only allows them to run persistent current account deficits, but also imposes a permanent decay on the American current account. As the issuer of the world key currency in an asymmetric world monetary system, the US can make use of Seigniorage and valuation effects to be able to run a continuous current account deficit. These mechanisms work in favour of their net foreign bond holdings, but let their CA further deteriorate. The corresponding one-way capital flows were part of the distortions that laid the ground for the world financial crisis 2007-2009. Future will show if a multi polar world with several (regional) reserve currencies emerges.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Dettmann, 2013. "An Asymmetric Model on Seigniorage and the Dynamics of Net Foreign Assets," Working Papers 11/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:11/2013
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    File URL: http://dse.univr.it/home/workingpapers/wp2013n11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, May.
    2. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-248.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: U.S. External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Paul Krugman, 2007. "Will there be a dollar crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22, pages 435-467, July.
    5. Georg Dettmann, 2011. "A View on Global Imbalances and their Contribution to the Financial Crisis," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1102, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    6. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22, pages 519-573, July.
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    Keywords

    Seigniorage; NFA Positions; Current Account; DGE; Two Country Model; Borrowing Constraints; International Monetary Theory;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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