Instability and crisis in financial complex systems
This paper contrasts the Efficient Markets Hypothesis with Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), taking into account the dynamic complexity of financial markets. This approach offers analytical tools that can account for crisis through processes endogenous to contemporary economies. Recent work, notably by J. Barkley Rosser, has suggested that complex dynamics is a strong foundations for Keynesian models and results. Group dynamics enter into the analysis in at least two ways: they provide an independent source of fundamental uncertainty which, as discussed by Keynes himself, can lead to speculative bubbles in asset markets, and they can cause overreactions in both lenders' and borrowers' attitudes toward risk. These aspects can lead to financial fragility and instability following a variety of complex dynamics. I shall argue that a financially complex system is, according to the FIH, inherently flawed and unstable: in the absence of adequate economic policy boom and bust phenomena, in financial markets which are fuelled by credit booms and busts, may generate endogenous instability and systemic crisis, such as the recent sub-prime mortgage crisis. [O]ur economic leadership does not seem to be aware that the normal functioning of our economy leads to financial trauma and crisis, inflation, currency depreciations, unemployment, and poverty in the midst of what could be virtually universal affluence--in short, that financially complex capitalism is inherently flawed . (Minsky, 1986, p. 287; our emphasis)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Davidson, 1996. "Reality and Economic Theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 18(4), pages 479-508, July.
- Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002.
"The price dynamics of common trading strategies,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
- Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988.
"Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep,"
m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
- Paul Davidson, 2009. "Alternative Explanations of the Operation of a Capitalist Economy," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 52(6), pages 5-28, November.
- Arestis, Philip, 1996. "Post-Keynesian Economics: Towards Coherence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 111-35, January.
- Vercelli, Alessandro, 2000. "Structural financial instability and cyclical fluctuations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 139-156, July.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1995.
"Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 181-85, May.
- Roberto Marchionatti, 2010.
"J. M. Keynes, thinker of economic complexity,"
History of Economic Ideas,
Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 18(2), pages 115-146.
- Jan Kregel, 2007. "The Natural Instability of Financial Markets," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_523, Levy Economics Institute.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1983.
"Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression,"
NBER Working Papers
1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
- Joseph E. Stiglitz & Andrew Weiss, 1988. "Banks as Social Accountants and Screening Devices for the Allocation of Credit," NBER Working Papers 2710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Colander & Richard P.F. Holt & J. Barkley Rosser, 2010.
"The Complexity Era in Economics,"
Middlebury College Working Paper Series
1001, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
- L. Randall Wray, 2009. "The rise and fall of money manager capitalism: a Minskian approach," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 807-828, July.
- Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
- John Foster, 2005.
"From simplistic to complex systems in economics,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 29(6), pages 873-892, November.
- J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
- J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. & Marina Vcherashnaya Rosser, 1997. "Complex Dynamics and Systemic Change: How Things Can Go Very Wrong," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 20(1), pages 103-122, October.
- Fontana Magda, 2008. "The complexity approach to economics : a Paradigm shift," CESMEP Working Papers 200801, University of Turin.
- Roger Koppl & Barkley Rosser, 2002. "All that I have to say will already have crossed your mind," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 185, Society for Computational Economics.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992.
"A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
- L. Randall Wray, 2008. "Financial Markets Meltdown: What Can We Learn from Minsky," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_94, Levy Economics Institute.
- J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., 2001. "Alternative Keynesian and Post Keynesian Perspectives on Uncertainty and Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 23(4), pages 545-566, July.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1985. "Credit Markets and the Control of Capital," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 133-52, May.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Victoria Chick, 2008. "Could the Crisis at Northern Rock have been Predicted?: An Evolutionary Approach-super- 1," Contributions to Political Economy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 115-124.
- Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2006. "Financial fragility and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 543-561, December.
- J. Barkley Rosser, 1999. "On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 169-192, Fall.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uto:cesmep:201001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Piero Cavaleri)or (Marina Grazioli)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.