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Textual Sentiment, Option Characteristics, and Stock Return Predictability

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  • Yi-Hsuan Chen, Cathy
  • Fengler, Matthias
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Liu, Yanchu

Abstract

We distill sentiment from a huge assortment of NASDAQ news articles by means of machine learning methods and examine its predictive power in single-stock option markets and equity markets. We provide evidence that single-stock options react to contemporaneous sentiment. Next, examining return predictability, we discover that while option variables indeed predict stock returns, sentiment variables add further informational content. In fact, both in a regression and a trading context, option variables orthogonalized to public and sentimental news are even more informative predictors of stock returns. Distinguishing further between overnight and trading-time news, we find the first to be more informative. From a statistical topic model, we uncover that this is attributable to the differing thematic coverage of the alternate archives. Finally, we show that sentiment disagreement commands a strong positive risk premium above and beyond market volatility and that lagged returns predict future returns in concentrated sentiment environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi-Hsuan Chen, Cathy & Fengler, Matthias & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Liu, Yanchu, 2018. "Textual Sentiment, Option Characteristics, and Stock Return Predictability," Economics Working Paper Series 1808, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2018:08
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    6. Joshua Zoen Git Hiew & Xin Huang & Hao Mou & Duan Li & Qi Wu & Yabo Xu, 2019. "BERT-based Financial Sentiment Index and LSTM-based Stock Return Predictability," Papers 1906.09024, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investor disagreement; option markets; overnight information; stock return predictability; textual sentiment; topic model; trading-time information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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