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Property Investment and Rental Rate under Housing Price Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach

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  • Wang, Honglin
  • Yu, Fan
  • Zhou, Yinggang

Abstract

The conventional wisdom that housing prices are the present value of future rents ignores the fact that unlike dividends on stocks, rent is not discretionary. Housing price uncertainty can affect household property investments, which in turn affect rent. By extending the theory of investment under uncertainty, we model the renter's decision to buy a house and the landlord's decision to sell as the exercising of real options of waiting and examine real options effects on rent. Using data from Hong Kong and mainland China, we find a significant effect of housing price on rent and draw important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Honglin & Yu, Fan & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Property Investment and Rental Rate under Housing Price Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-051, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2018051
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    2. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Comovement In Buying Versus Renting In The Usa," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(3), pages 93-121, September.
    3. Nhlabathi Mthobisi & Mgiba Freddy Marilahimbilu & Ligaraba Neo, 2022. "Social Media Marketing Attributes, Sandton’s Rental Market Brand Image, and the Millennials’ Rental Preference: An Empirical Study," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(1), pages 34-52, March.
    4. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Comovement in Buying versus Renting in the United States," Working Papers 201832, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Xiaojia Bao & Qingliang Fan, 2020. "The impact of temperature on gaming productivity: evidence from online games," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 835-867, February.
    6. Yatracos, Yannis G., 2018. "Residual'S Influence Index (Rinfin), Bad Leverage And Unmasking In High Dimensional L2-Regression," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-060, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    7. Binh Nguyen Thanh & Johannes Strobel & Gabriel Lee, 2020. "A New Measure of Real Estate Uncertainty Shocks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 744-771, September.
    8. Yiying Cheng & Steven P. Clark & Kiplan S. Womack, 2021. "A Real Options Model of Real Estate Development with Entitlement Risk," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 106-151, March.

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