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Zur Rolle der Ökonometrie in der wissenschaftlichen Politikberatung

  • Kirchgässner, Gebhard

    ()

Because economic theory alone does in many situations not provide unambiguous policy advice, most of the time empirical analyses are needed in addition. Thus, today econometric analyses are often parts of reports for political institutions or courts. However, it is not unusual that reports with contradicting evidence are presented by different groups or parties. Using the relation between government size and economic growth as an example, it is shown how such contradicting results are possible even if all scientists involved behave sincerely and adhere to the rules of scientific research. Our second example, studies investigating whether the death penalty serves as a deterrent to homicide, shows that the results of empirical analyses might to a large extent depend on a priori convictions of the scientists. Thus, the process of scientific policy advice has to be organised in a way so that – similar to the genuinely scientific discourse – open discussion and criticisms of methods and results are possible. In order to disclose possible conflicts of interests, this demand transparency of the whole process and, in particular for empirical analyses, that data and programmes are made available for re-estimations.

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File URL: http://www1.vwa.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/econwp/EWP-1223.pdf
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Paper provided by University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science in its series Economics Working Paper Series with number 1223.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2012:23
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  1. Gebhard Kirchgassner, 2009. "Die Krise der Wirtschaft: Auch eine Krise der Wirtschaftswissenschaften?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2009-15, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  2. Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "Minority Positions in the German Council of Economic Experts: A Political Economic Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4206, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Isaac Ehrlich, 1973. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Question of Life and Death," NBER Working Papers 0018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Felix Oberholzer-Gee & Koleman Strumpf, 2007. "The Effect of File Sharing on Record Sales: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 1-42.
  5. Agell, Jonas & Ohlsson, Henry & Thoursie, Peter Skogman, 2006. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 211-218, January.
  6. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1973. "Do Walras' identity and continuity characterize the class of community excess demand functions?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 345-354, August.
  7. Tomaso Duso & Damien J. Neven & Lars-Hendrik Röller, 2007. "The Political Economy of European Merger Control: Evidence using Stock Market Data," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50, pages 455-489.
  8. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
  9. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2011. "Econometric Estimates of Deterrence of the Death Penalty: Facts or Ideology?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 448-478, 08.
  10. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2004. "Zum Zusammenhang zwischen staatlicher Aktivität und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  11. Jeffrey Frankel, 2003. "What an Economic Adviser Can Do When He Disagrees with the President," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 29-52, May.
  12. Agell, Jonas & Lindh, Thomas & Ohlsson, Henry, 1997. "Growth and the public sector: A critical review essay," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 33-52, February.
  13. Yang, Bijou & Lester, David, 2008. "The deterrent effect of executions: A meta-analysis thirty years after Ehrlich," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 453-460, September.
  14. Klaus Heine & Karsten Mause, 2004. "Policy Advice as an Investment Problem," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 403-427, 08.
  15. Liebowitz, Stan J, 2006. "File Sharing: Creative Destruction or Just Plain Destruction?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 1-28, April.
  16. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1972. "Market Excess Demand Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 549-63, May.
  17. Agell, Jonas & Lindh, Thomas & Ohlsson, Henry, 1998. "Growth and the Public Sector: A reply," Working Paper Series 1999:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  18. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2006. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries: A reply," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 219-221, January.
  19. Hahn, Robert W, 1989. "Economic Prescriptions for Environmental Problems: How the Patient Followed the Doctor's Orders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 95-114, Spring.
  20. McManus, Walter S, 1985. "Estimates of the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: The Importance of the Researcher's Prior Beliefs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 417-25, April.
  21. Christoph Schaltegger & Benno Torgler, 2006. "Growth effects of public expenditure on the state and local level: evidence from a sample of rich governments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1181-1192.
  22. Berit C. Gerritzen & Gebhard Kirchg�ssner, 2013. "Facts or Ideology: What Determines the Results of Econometric Estimates of the Deterrence Effect of Death Penalty?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2013-04, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  23. Fölster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1997. "Growth and the Public Sector: A Critique of the Critics," Working Paper Series 492, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 10 Jun 1998.
  24. Jones, Philip R & Cullis, John G, 1993. " Public Choice and Public Policy: The Vulnerability of Economic Advice to the Interpretation of Politicians," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 75(1), pages 63-77, January.
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