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How can Iran’s black market exchange rate be managed?

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Abstract

The Iranian currency (rial) depreciated on average 12.2 per cent per annum against the U.S dollar during the period 1960-1998 but, despite continued two-digit rates of inflation, the rial has witnessed only a meagre 1.7 per cent fall in its value in the post 1998 era. This paper examines this perplexing issue by identifying the major long-run determinants of the black market exchange rate. This paper uses the multivariate cointegration test, a threshold regression model and annual time series data (1960-2008) to determine exactly at what exchange rate the effect of relative prices on the exchange rate has been subject to an asymmetry adjustment process. We found that the relative CPIs in Iran and the U.S., total stock of foreign debt and the price of crude oil are the major long-run determinants of the black market exchange rate. However, the impact of relative prices (as measured by the magnitude of its elasticity) has significantly diminished from almost unity in the pre 1998 period to less than one-fourth since 1998. Based on our results, if oil prices continue to plunge, liquidity and inflation are out of control and at the same time Iran accumulates more external debt, the exchange rate will eventually exhibit an unprecedented and explosive depreciation in the coming years. No previous study has examined this issue using a threshold regression model without splitting the entire sample into two sections according to an endogenously determined threshold for the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Valadkhani, Abbas & Amin Reza Kamalian & Majid Nameni, 2009. "How can Iran’s black market exchange rate be managed?," Economics Working Papers wp09-07, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp09-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Farzin, Y. H., 1995. "Foreign exchange reform in Iran: Badly designed, badly managed," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 987-1001, June.
    2. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2005. "History of the Rial and Foreign Exchange Policy in Iran," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, fall.
    5. Jalal U. Siddiki, 2000. "Black market exchange rates in India: an empirical analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 297-313.
    6. Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Black Market Exchange Rate In Iran," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 144, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1996. "The black market exchange rate and demand for money in Iran," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-176.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 1996. "The Decline of the Iranian Rial During the Post Revolutionary Period: A Productivity Approach," Working Papers 9615, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 1996.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan Bashir, 2016. "The role of structural breaks, nonlinearity and asymmetric adjustments in African bilateral real exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 144-159.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Iran; Black market exchange rate; Threshold regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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