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An initial push for successful transition from import substitution to export-orientation in Taiwan and China: The FDI-led hypothesis

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Abstract

This paper examines the association between government policy interventions, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and exports in Taiwan and China by applying the LP (Lumsdaine and Papell, 1997), approach allowing two endogenous structural breaks. This paper further explores the cointegrating relationship between FDI and exports in Taiwan by using the Johansen and Juselius (1990) approach and causal relationships between FDI and exports in both Taiwan and China by using the Granger causality tests respectively. We found that significant trend breaks in the FDI and export time series detected in both countries coincided with extensive government interventions, mainly in the form of Export Processing Zones (EPZ), encouraging FDI during a transition period from import substitution to export orientation. The results emerging from our research indicate no long-run cointegrating relationship in Taiwan and one-way causal relationship flows from exports to FDI in China and FDI to exports in Taiwan. The growing fear is that the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) involvement in deregulating EPZs may narrow the differences between the zones and the rest of the economy and prevent new firms from entering the zones. The EPZs may no longer be the transitional strategy for poor/developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Lee, Shao-Wei, 2007. "An initial push for successful transition from import substitution to export-orientation in Taiwan and China: The FDI-led hypothesis," Economics Working Papers wp07-03, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp07-03
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    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/web/uow021032.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    2. Liu, Xiaming & Wang, Chengang & Wei, Yingqi, 2001. "Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 190-202.
    3. Xiaohui Liu & Peter Burridge & P. J. N. Sinclair, 2002. "Relationships between economic growth, foreign direct investment and trade: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1433-1440.
    4. Zhang, Kevin Honglin & Song, Shunfeng, 2001. "Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 385-396.
    5. Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2003. "Benefit-Cost Appraisals of Export Processing Zones: A Survey of the Literature," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 51-65, January.
    6. Ping Zheng & Pamela Siler & Gianluigi Giorgioni, 2004. "FDI and the Export Performance of Chinese Indigenous Firms: a Regional Approach," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 55-71.
    7. Penélope Pacheco-López, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Imports in Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(8), pages 1157-1172, August.
    8. Warr, Peter G, 1989. "Export Processing Zones: The Economics of Enclave Manufacturing," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 4(1), pages 65-88, January.
    9. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    10. Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Wilson, Ed & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Structural Changes in the Iranian Economy: An Empirical Analysis with Endogenously Determined Breaks," Economics Working Papers wp05-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Boyrie Maria E, 2010. "Structural Changes, Causality, and Foreign Direct Investments: Evidence from the Asian Crises of 1997," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-40, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; Exports; EPZ; structural breaks; causality; East Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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