IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uow/depec1/wp07-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An initial push for successful transition from import substitution to export-orientation in Taiwan and China: The FDI-led hypothesis

Author

Abstract

This paper examines the association between government policy interventions, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and exports in Taiwan and China by applying the LP (Lumsdaine and Papell, 1997), approach allowing two endogenous structural breaks. This paper further explores the cointegrating relationship between FDI and exports in Taiwan by using the Johansen and Juselius (1990) approach and causal relationships between FDI and exports in both Taiwan and China by using the Granger causality tests respectively. We found that significant trend breaks in the FDI and export time series detected in both countries coincided with extensive government interventions, mainly in the form of Export Processing Zones (EPZ), encouraging FDI during a transition period from import substitution to export orientation. The results emerging from our research indicate no long-run cointegrating relationship in Taiwan and one-way causal relationship flows from exports to FDI in China and FDI to exports in Taiwan. The growing fear is that the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) involvement in deregulating EPZs may narrow the differences between the zones and the rest of the economy and prevent new firms from entering the zones. The EPZs may no longer be the transitional strategy for poor/developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Lee, Shao-Wei, 2007. "An initial push for successful transition from import substitution to export-orientation in Taiwan and China: The FDI-led hypothesis," Economics Working Papers wp07-03, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp07-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/web/uow021032.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M.M. Metwally, 2004. "Impact of EU- FDI on Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 121-132.
    2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    3. Liu, Xiaming & Wang, Chengang & Wei, Yingqi, 2001. "Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 190-202.
    4. Xiaohui Liu & Peter Burridge & P. J. N. Sinclair, 2002. "Relationships between economic growth, foreign direct investment and trade: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1433-1440.
    5. Zhang, Kevin Honglin & Song, Shunfeng, 2001. "Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 385-396.
    6. Xiaohui Liu & Chang Shu, 2003. "Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence from Chinese Industries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 45-67, March.
    7. repec:bla:devpol:v:21:y:2003:i:1:p:51-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ping Zheng & Pamela Siler & Gianluigi Giorgioni, 2004. "FDI and the Export Performance of Chinese Indigenous Firms: a Regional Approach," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 55-71.
    9. MacKinnon, James G., 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273322, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    10. Penélope Pacheco‐López, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Imports in Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(8), pages 1157-1172, August.
    11. Warr, Peter G, 1989. "Export Processing Zones: The Economics of Enclave Manufacturing," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 65-88, January.
    12. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    13. Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Wilson, Ed & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Structural Changes in the Iranian Economy: An Empirical Analysis with Endogenously Determined Breaks," Economics Working Papers wp05-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. de Boyrie Maria E, 2010. "Structural Changes, Causality, and Foreign Direct Investments: Evidence from the Asian Crises of 1997," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-40, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shib Sankar Jana & Tarak Nath Sahu & Krishna Dayal Pandey, 2024. "Growth in Foreign Trade in Liberalized India: The Relevance of FDI," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 25(1), pages 252-267, February.
    2. Sajid Anwar & Sizhong Sun, 2016. "Foreign direct investment, domestic sales and exports of local firms: a regional perspective from China," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 325-338, July.
    3. Shib Sankar Jana & Tarak Nath Sahu & Krishna Dayal Pandey, 2020. "How far is FDI relevant to India’s foreign trade growth? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    5. Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Syed Ali Raza & Khalid Mustafa & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2016. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Lead Export Performance in Pakistan?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1296-1313, December.
    6. Balaguer, Jacint & Ripollés, Jordi, 2012. "Testing for price response asymmetries in the Spanish fuel market. New evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2066-2071.
    7. Gomes, Fábio A. R. & Franchini, Douglas de S., 2008. "The Stationarity of Consumption–Income Ratios: Evidence from South American Countries," Insper Working Papers wpe_123, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    8. Hian Teck HOON & Frank S T Hsiao & Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao, 2020. "FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia — Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Development Strategies of Open Economies Cases from Emerging East and Southeast Asia, chapter 4, pages 81-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Uäžur Sivri, 2017. "Is Inflation Rate Of Turkey Stationary? Evidence From Unit Root Tests With And Without Structural Breaks," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 20, pages 29-52, December.
    10. Zhou, Runyu & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Almulhim, Abdulaziz.I. & Alvarado, Rafael, 2022. "Do natural resources, economic growth, human capital, and urbanization affect the ecological footprint? A modified dynamic ARDL and KRLS approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    12. Radovan Kastratović, 2020. "The impact of foreign direct investment on host country exports: A meta‐analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 3142-3183, December.
    13. Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2006. "Hysteresis Vs. Nairu And Convergence Vs. Divergence: The Behavior Of Regional Unemployment Rates In Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 161, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Jim Lee, 2016. "Do rice prices follow a random walk? Evidence from Markov switching unit root tests for Asian markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(6), pages 683-695, November.
    15. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & da Silva, Cleomar Gomes, 2009. "Hysteresis versus NAIRU and convergence versus divergence: The behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 308-322, May.
    16. P Pegkas & C Tsamadias, 2016. "How important are foreign and domestic investments, exports and human capital for Greece's economic growth?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(1), pages 23-45, March.
    17. Gaolu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2020. "Effects of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Consumption in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    18. Mei Wen, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment, Regional Geographical and Market Conditions, and Regional Development: A Panel Study on China," Departmental Working Papers 2005-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    19. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.
    20. Bhatt, P.R., 2013. "Causal Relationship between Exports, FDI and Income: The case of Vietnam," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 161-172.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp07-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Siminski The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Peter Siminski to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuowau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.