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Causal Relationship between Exports, FDI and Income: The case of Vietnam

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  • Bhatt, P.R.

Abstract

The objectives of the paper are to study foreign trade and investment dimensions of Vietnam in comparison with its competitors such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand as also to study the role of FDI to the growth of exports in Vietnam. Vector autoregression model (VAR) is adopted to estimate the long run causal relationship among exports, foreign direct investment and GDP. The cointegration test result shows that there exist a long run equilibrium relationship among exports, FDI and GDP. It is found from the estimated Error Correction Model that FDI is a significant variable and the result indicates that 1% increase in FDI will lead to 0.25% increase in exports with one year time gap. Granger Causality Test indicates that there is a unilateral relationship between exports and FDI and the direction is from FDI to exports which mean that FDI causes exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhatt, P.R., 2013. "Causal Relationship between Exports, FDI and Income: The case of Vietnam," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 161-172.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:13:y:2013:i:1_13
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    Cited by:

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    3. Shib Sankar Jana & Tarak Nath Sahu & Krishna Dayal Pandey, 2020. "How far is FDI relevant to India’s foreign trade growth? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki & Abdelhafidh Othmani, 2018. "The Six Linkages Between Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, Exports, Imports, Labor Force And Economic Growth: New Empirical And Policy Analysis From Nigeria," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(1), pages 25-43, Juin.
    5. Klimis Vogiatzoglou, 2019. "Export Composition and Long-run Economic Growth Impact: A Cointegration Analysis for ASEAN ‘Latecomer’ Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 168-191, May.
    6. Bakari, Sayef, 2022. "Relationship among Domestic Investment, Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence form the Case of Greece," MPRA Paper 114418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    8. Stephen G. GRUBAUGH, 2019. "Fdi, Growth And Level Of Development: Analysis Of 76 Countries For The Period 1980-2010," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 19(2), pages 5-18.
    9. Chandan Kumar Roy & Huang Xiaoling, 2020. "Effects of Paperless Trade Policy and Aid for Trade on Export Performance: Evidence from SASEC And CAREC Countries," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 61-74, March.
    10. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2019. "Economic effects of inward foreign direct investment in Vietnamese provinces," MPRA Paper 92032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Le, Huong & Ho, Manh-Toan, 2019. "Economic Reforms, External Liberalization and Macroeconomic Performance in Vietnam," OSF Preprints ctj5z, Center for Open Science.
    12. Shib Sankar Jana & Tarak Nath Sahu & Krishna Dayal Pandey, 2024. "Growth in Foreign Trade in Liberalized India: The Relevance of FDI," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 25(1), pages 252-267, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; Exports; Vietnam; Error Correction Model; Cointegration; Granger Causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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