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Structural Changes in the Iranian Economy: An Empirical Analysis with Endogenously Determined Breaks

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Abstract

This paper employs annual time series data (1960-2003) and the ZA (Zivot and Andrews, 1992) and the LP (Lumsdaine and Papell, 1997) approaches to determine endogenously the more likely time of major structural breaks in various macroeconomic variables of the Iranian economy. We have considered the presence of one and two unknown structural breaks in the data. The results obtained from these two approaches are consistent in that the time of one structural break in eight out of the ten variables examined in the paper is the same. The resulting structural breaks coincide with important phenomena in the economy such as the 1974 oil shock, the 1979 Islamic revolution, the Iraqi war or the implementation of the exchange rate unification policy in 1993 in the case of the official exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Wilson, Ed & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Structural Changes in the Iranian Economy: An Empirical Analysis with Endogenously Determined Breaks," Economics Working Papers wp05-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp05-05
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    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012188.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Farzin, Y. H., 1995. "Foreign exchange reform in Iran: Badly designed, badly managed," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 987-1001, June.
    2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    3. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Pesaran, H., 1995. "Planning and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Iran," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9508, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13890, December.
    7. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    9. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003. "Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, April.
    10. Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1117-1121.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppina Autiero & Concetto Paolo Vinci, 2010. "Government regulation of religion and investments in human and physical capital," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 119-135, January.
    2. Sanginabadi, Bahram & Heidari, Hassan, 2012. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Iran," MPRA Paper 52406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Lee, Shao-Wei, 2007. "An initial push for successful transition from import substitution to export-orientation in Taiwan and China: The FDI-led hypothesis," Economics Working Papers wp07-03, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural break; unit root test; Iranian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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