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An Econometric Model for Deforestation in Indonesia

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  • Muhammad Zikri

    (International and Development Economics Program Australian National University)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop an econometric model of deforestation in Indonesia using time series analysis based on the annual data from 1961 to 2000. From the model, we should be able: (i) To examine the forces of agricultural and timber sectors to forest decline; (ii) To distinguish the sources, direct and underlying causes of deforestation; and (iii) To identify macro-level economic factors that give pressures on deforestation. In order to achieve these purposes, a two-stage methods for the recursive system is chosen. The robustness of the estimation is checked to ensure there are no serial correlation and heteroskedasticity in all our equations. The main findings of model estimation show that, the forest product exports and the change in cereal cropland are the main sources of deforestation in Indonesia. Therefore, the factors determining the two sources become important to be taken into consideration. However, further examination on the underlying factors of deforestation in Indonesia are adversely affected by poor estimators given by the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Zikri, 2009. "An Econometric Model for Deforestation in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200903, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:200903
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    File URL: http://lp3e.fe.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/200903.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angelsen, Arild & Kaimowitz, David, 1999. "Rethinking the Causes of Deforestation: Lessons from Economic Models," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 73-98, February.
    2. Edward B. Barbier, 1998. "The Economics of Environment and Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1363.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. David Wheeler, Robin Kraft, Dan Hammer, 2011. "Forest Clearing in the Pantropics: December 2005–August 2011- Working Paper 283," Working Papers 283, Center for Global Development.
    2. Dasgupta, Susmita & Hammer, Dan & Kraft, Robin & Wheeler, David, 2014. "Vyāghranomics in space and time: Estimating habitat threats for Bengal, Indochinese, Malayan and Sumatran tigers," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 433-453.
    3. Wheeler, David & Hammer, Dan & Kraft, Robin & Dasgupta, Susmita & Blankespoor, Brian, 2013. "Economic dynamics and forest clearing: A spatial econometric analysis for Indonesia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 85-96.
    4. David Wheeler, Dan Hammer, Robin Kraft, 2011. "From REDD to Green: A Global Incentive System to Stop Tropical Forest Clearing- Working Paper 282," Working Papers 282, Center for Global Development.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deforestation; econometric model; Indonesian forest;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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