A methodology to estimate impacts of domestic policies on deforestation: Compensated Successful Efforts for “avoided deforestation” (REDD)
Climate change mitigation would benefit from Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) in developing countries. The REDD mechanism is in charge of distilling the right incentives for fostering forest conservation with appropriate compensation of foregone revenues, which in turn is related to avoided deforestation (how many hectares of forests are saved). Although any prediction of deforestation rates (i.e. business-as-usual scenarios) is challenging, and any negotiated target is subject to political influence, these two ways have been prioritirized so far. In other words, proposals have focused on a baseline (or cap)-and-trade approach, which relevance is questionable because resulting financial compensations are subject to unfairness if estimations of avoided deforestation are not reliable. Rather than considering overall deforestation (predicted and observed), we argue that a REDD mechanism would gain from linking compensations to real efforts that developing countries implement for slowing deforestation rates. This would provide more efficient incentives to design and enforce suitable policies and measures. The methodology we present to measure these efforts (labeled Compensated Successful Efforts) is based on the rationale that overall deforestation is due partly to structural factors, and partly to domestic policies and measures. This typology differs from others presented in the literature such as proximate / underlying causes, or economic / institutional factors. Using an econometric model, our approach estimates efforts that are (i) independent of structural factors (economic development, population, initial forest area, agricultural export prices), (ii) estimated ex post at the end of the crediting period, and (iii) relative to other countries. In order to illustrate the methodology we apply the model to a panel of 48 countries (Asia, Latin America, Africa) and four periods between 1970 and 2005. We conclude on the feasibility to estimate avoided deforestation using the Compensated Successful Efforts approach. In addition to being conservative from an environmental perspective, this approach guarantees fairness by accounting for dramatic changes during the commitment period.
|Date of creation:||18 Jan 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00556933|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barrett, Christopher B. & Gibson, Clark C. & Hoffman, Barak & McCubbins, Mathew D., 2005. "The complex links between governance and biodiversity," Working Papers 14758, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Sierra, Rodrigo, 2001. "The role of domestic timber markets in tropical deforestation and forest degradation in Ecuador: Implications for conservation planning and policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 327-340, February.
- Scrieciu, S. Serban, 2007. "Can economic causes of tropical deforestation be identified at a global level?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 603-612, May.
- Mahapatr, Krushna & Kant, Shashi, 2005. "Tropical deforestation: a multinomial logistic model and some country-specific policy prescriptions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, January.
- Jean-Louis Arcand & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Patrick Guillaumont, 2008.
"Deforestation and the Real Exchange Rate,"
- Jean-Louis ARCAND & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 2005. "Deforestation and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 200533, CERDI.
- Jean-Louis Arcand & Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 2011. "Deforestation and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers halshs-00570477, HAL.
- Jean-Louis ARCAND & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2003. "Deforestation and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 200332, CERDI.
- Maestad, Ottar, 2001. "Timber trade restrictions and tropical deforestation: a forest mining approach," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 111-132, April.
- Giovanni Federico, 2005.
"Introduction to Feeding the World: An Economic History of World Agriculture, 1800-2000
[Feeding the World: An Economic History of World Agriculture, 1800-2000]," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
- Dasgupta, Susmita & Hamilton, Kirk & Pandey, Kiran D. & Wheeler, David, 2006. "Environment During growth: Accounting for governance and vulnerability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1597-1611, September.
- Farzin, Y. Hossein & Bond, Craig A., 2006. "Democracy and environmental quality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 213-235, October.
- Bhattarai, Madhusudan & Hammig, Michael, 2004. "Governance, economic policy, and the environmental Kuznets curve for natural tropical forests," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 367-382, July.
- Culas, Richard J., 2007. "Deforestation and the environmental Kuznets curve: An institutional perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2-3), pages 429-437, March.
- Michael Dutschke, 2007. "CDM Forestry and the Ultimate Objective of the Climate Convention," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 275-302, February.
- Wunder, Sven, 2005. "Macroeconomic Change, Competitiveness and Timber Production: A Five-Country Comparison," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 65-86, January.
- Bhattarai, Madhusudan & Hammig, Michael, 2001. "Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation: A Crosscountry Analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 995-1010, June.
- Angelsen, Arild & Kaimowitz, David, 1999. "Rethinking the Causes of Deforestation: Lessons from Economic Models," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 14(1), pages 73-98, February.
- Edward B. Barbier, 2004. "Explaining Agricultural Land Expansion and Deforestation in Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1347-1353.
- Miyamoto, Motoe, 2006. "Forest conversion to rubber around Sumatran villages in Indonesia: Comparing the impacts of road construction, transmigration projects and population," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00556933. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.