IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ulp/sbbeta/2023-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Pandemics Impact Macroeconomic Variables? A Cliometric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Guillaume Morel
  • Magali Jaoul-Grammare

Abstract

The objective of this article is to study the impact of major pandemics on GDP/capita, wages and prices. The originality of our work lies in a cliometric approach relying on a database spanning multiple centuries (1280-2018), using various series from De Granges et al. (1855), D’Avenel (1894), Baulant (1971), INSEE (1988) and Maddison (2020). In order to analyse the impact of major pandemics on the economy, we use the outlier methodology (Darné and Diebolt, 2004). This method consists in detecting atypical points affecting the evolution of a time series. It relies on real shocks and not on simulated ones; it is therefore more suitable for historical analysis. We detect events which significantly affected the evolution of the economy during a determined period. The following question is tackled: over the period 1280-2018, did pandemics significantly influence the evolution of GDP/capita, wages and prices (wheat) and if so, what has been the nature of this impact? Having outlined the history of pandemics and reviewed the literature linking our variables to health shocks, we present our results and observe a differentiated impact of pandemics between variables. First, only GDP/capita is significantly affected by health shocks. Second, wages and prices seem to be unaffected by pandemics; variations appear to be directly linked to institutional events like the introduction of taxes, the presence of guilds, and changes in worker statuses (Jedwab et al. (2020)), and to structural events as food shortages and crop failures (Boyer et al. (2019)).

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Morel & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2023. "Do Pandemics Impact Macroeconomic Variables? A Cliometric Approach," Working Papers of BETA 2023-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2023-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://beta.u-strasbg.fr/WP/2023/2023-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alok Bhargava & Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence J. Lau & Christopher J. L. Murray, 2006. "Modeling the effects of health on economic growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 20, pages 269-286, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2022. "The Economic Impact of the Black Death," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 132-178, March.
    3. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2004. "Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 113-131.
    4. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    5. Basco, Sergi & Domènech, Jordi & Rosés, Joan R., 2021. "The redistributive effects of pandemics: Evidence on the Spanish flu," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Samuel Cohn, 2007. "After the Black Death: labour legislation and attitudes towards labour in late‐medieval western Europe," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 60(3), pages 457-485, August.
    7. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    8. Philipson, Tomas, 2000. "Economic epidemiology and infectious diseases," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 33, pages 1761-1799, Elsevier.
    9. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    11. Fernando E. Alvarez & David Argente & Francesco Lippi, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," NBER Working Papers 26981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    13. Jappelli, Tullio & Carillo, Mario Francesco, 2020. "Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. repec:aei:rpaper:1008560098 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jean-Daniel Boyer & Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Sylvie Rivot, 2019. "The debate over grain in the 1750s. A cliometric point of view," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 698-737, July.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    17. Guido Alfani, 2013. "Plague in seventeenth-century Europe and the decline of Italy: an epidemiological hypothesis," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 17(4), pages 408-430, November.
    18. Jaravel, Xavier & O'Connell, Martin, 2020. "Real-time price indices: Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    19. Augier, Laurent & Yaly, Amy, 2013. "Economic growth and disease in the OLG model: The HIV/AIDS case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 471-481.
    20. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    21. M. Postan, 1950. "Some Economic Evidence Of Declining Population In The Later Middle Ages," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 2(3), pages 221-246, April.
    22. F. J. Fisher, 1965. "Influenza and Inflation in Tudor England," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 18(1), pages 120-129, August.
    23. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic - Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8166, CESifo.
    24. Helen Robbins, 1928. "A Comparison of the Effects of the Black Death on the Economic Organization of France and England," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(4), pages 447-447.
    25. Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu, 2012. "Infectious diseases and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(1), pages 125-149, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guillaume Morel & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2023. "Do Pandemics Impact Macroeconomic Variables? A Cliometric Approach," Working Papers 01-23, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    2. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    3. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. La Torre, Davide & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Epidemics and macroeconomic outcomes: Social distancing intensity and duration," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    7. Guillaume Chapelle, 2022. "The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 43-81.
    8. Levy, Daniel & Mayer, Tamir & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Economists in the 2008 financial crisis: Slow to see, fast to act," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Miguel Casares & Paul Gomme & Hashmat Khan, 2022. "COVID‐19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 503-539, February.
    10. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    11. Bosi, Stefano & Camacho, Carmen & Desmarchelier, David, 2021. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Velde, François R., 2022. "What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 284-326, March.
    14. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," PSE Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    15. La Torre, Davide & Marsiglio, Simone & Mendivil, Franklin & Privileggi, Fabio, 2021. "Generalized Fractal Transforms with Condensation: a Macroeconomic-Epidemiological Application," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202107, University of Turin.
    16. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    17. Anand Chopra & Michael B. Devereux & Amartya Lahiri, 2022. "Pandemics through the lens of occupations," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 540-580, February.
    18. Béland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor, 2020. "The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response," GLO Discussion Paper Series 524, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    19. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "The long-term economic effects of pandemics: toward an evolutionary approach [Epidemics and trust: the case of the Spanish flu]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 715-735.
    20. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "A Literature Review of Pandemics and Development: the Long-Term Perspective," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 183-212, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cliometrics; GDP; Infectious diseases; Outliers; Prices; Wages.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2023-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bestrfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.