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The Role of Financial Literacy in Anchoring Inflation Expectations: The Case of Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Andriy Tsapin

    (National Bank of Ukraine
    National University of Ostroh Academy)

  • Oleksandr Faryna

    (National Bank of Ukraine
    National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy)

Abstract

Using survey data from the USAID Financial Sector Transformation Project, this paper examines whether or not financial literacy influences households' expectations about future prices and whether or not it anchors inflation expectations to the central bank's target. We find that higher financial literacy lowers average uncertainty about one-year inflation, but increases three-year inflation expectations. The results from quantile regressions confirm the asymmetric effects of financial literacy and its components on inflation. Inverse effects of financial literacy on expected inflation are at work for the upper end of the distribution (unanchored expectations), while positive effects are seen in the lower end of the distribution (anchored expectations). Our findings also suggest that financial literacy significantly improves inflation perceptions and the accuracy of individuals' predictions about inflation. The conclusions from this research are beneficial and have strong policy implications for the central bank's monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Andriy Tsapin & Oleksandr Faryna, 2024. "The Role of Financial Literacy in Anchoring Inflation Expectations: The Case of Ukraine," Working Papers 02/2024, National Bank of Ukraine.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:wpaper:02/2024
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    c inflation expectations; inflation perceptions; financial literacy; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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