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Signal accuracy and informational cascades

Author

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  • Tuvana Pastine
  • Ivan Pastine

Abstract

We extend the Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (1992) informational cascade framework to allow for asymmetric signal accuracy. Simulations demonstrate that even small departures from symmetry may lead to non-monotonic effects of signal accuracy on the likelihood of an inefficient cascade.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuvana Pastine & Ivan Pastine, 2006. "Signal accuracy and informational cascades," Working Papers 200620, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200620
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/698
    File Function: First version, 2006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neeman, Zvika & Orosel, Gerhard O., 1999. "Herding and the Winner's Curse in Markets with Sequential Bids," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 91-121, March.
    2. Angela A. Hung & Charles R. Plott, 2001. "Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity-Rewarding Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1508-1520, December.
    3. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-748, September.
    4. Pastine, Tuvana, 2005. "Social Learning in Continuous Time: When are Informational Cascades More Likely to be Inefficient?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5120, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    6. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    7. Choi, Chong Ju & Dassiou, Xeni & Gettings, Stephen, 2000. "Herding Behaviour and the Size of Customer Base as a Commitment to Quality," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 375-398, August.
    8. repec:cup:apsrev:v:93:y:1999:i:01:p:51-67_21 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June.
    10. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-862, December.
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    12. Lee Nelson, 2002. "Persistence and Reversal in Herd Behavior: Theory and Application to the Decision to Go Public," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 65-95, March.
    13. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    14. Chamley, Christophe & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1065-1085, September.
    15. De Vany, Arthur & Lee, Cassey, 2001. "Quality signals in information cascades and the dynamics of the distribution of motion picture box office revenues," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 593-614, March.
    16. Kennedy, Robert E, 2002. "Strategy Fads and Competitive Convergence: An Empirical Test for Herd Behavior in Prime-Time Television Programming," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 57-84, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Jiemai, 2015. "Helpful laymen in informational cascades," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 407-415.
    2. Fiore, Annamaria & Morone, Andrea, 2008. "A Simple Note on Informational Cascades," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-21.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Learning; Signal Precision; Herding; Information behavior--Mathematical models;

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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