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Signal Accuracy and Informational Cascades

  • Ivan Pastine

    (University College Dublin)

  • Tuvana Pastine

    (National University of Ireland Maynooth)

We extend the Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (1992) informational cascade framework to allow for asymmetric signal accuracy. Simulations demonstrate that even small departures from symmetry may lead to non-monotonic effects of signal accuracy on the likelihood of an inefficient cascade.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2006/WP06.20.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by School of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200620.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 28 Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200620
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  1. Plott, Charles & Hung, Angela, 1998. "Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity Rewarding Institutions," Working Papers 1051, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  2. Zvika NEEMAN & Gerhard O. OROSEL, 1997. "Herding and the Winner's Curse in Markets with Sequential Bids," Vienna Economics Papers vie9711, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  3. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-62, December.
  4. Choi, Chong Ju & Dassiou, Xeni & Gettings, Stephen, 2000. "Herding Behaviour and the Size of Customer Base as a Commitment to Quality," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 375-98, August.
  5. Lee Nelson, 2002. "Persistence and Reversal in Herd Behavior: Theory and Application to the Decision to Go Public," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 65-95, March.
  6. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-48, September.
  7. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
  8. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
  9. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
  10. Ivan Pastine & Tuvana Pastine, 2006. "Social Learning in Continuous Time - When are Informational Cascades More Likely to be Inefficient?," Working Papers 200621, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  11. De Vany, Arthur & Lee, Cassey, 2001. "Quality signals in information cascades and the dynamics of the distribution of motion picture box office revenues," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 593-614, March.
  12. Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April.
  13. Gale, D. & Chamley, C., 1992. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Papers 10, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  14. Kennedy, Robert E, 2002. "Strategy Fads and Competitive Convergence: An Empirical Test for Herd Behavior in Prime-Time Television Programming," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 57-84, March.
  15. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June.
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