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Persistence and Reversal in Herd Behavior: Theory and Application to the Decision to Go Public

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  • Lee Nelson

Abstract

We model rational herd behavior when the underlying value changes over time, with payoffs that are either dependent or independent of the underlying value. We show that herding does not last forever and is not monotone in signal quality. High correlation among agents' actions does not necessarily imply herding. This suggests alternative empirical methods are needed to detect herding. The model has many applications, including the IPO decision in which payoffs are state dependent. The model implies that the decision to go public is more likely associated with herding than the decision to delay an IPO. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee Nelson, 2002. "Persistence and Reversal in Herd Behavior: Theory and Application to the Decision to Go Public," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 65-95, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:15:y:2002:i:1:p:65-95
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Chao-Shi & Tang, Hui-Wen & Chen, Roger C.Y., 2017. "Does IPO subscription demand affect investor herd behavior in Taiwan?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 258-272.
    2. Richard J. Rosen & Scott B. Smart & Chad J. Zutter, 2005. "Why do firms go public? evidence from the banking industry," Working Paper Series WP-05-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Stolpe, Michael, 2004. "Europe's entry into the venture capital business: efficiency and policy," Kiel Working Papers 1223, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
    5. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    6. Kishishita, Daiki & Yamagishi, Atsushi, 2021. "Contagion of populist extremism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    7. Tuvana Pastine, 2004. "Comparative Statics in a Herding Model of Investment," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 260, Econometric Society.
    8. Pastine, Tuvana & Pastine, Ivan, 2005. "Signal Accuracy and Informational Cascades," CEPR Discussion Papers 5219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Stolpe, Michael, 2004. "Non-market interaction in primary equity markets: evidence from France and Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1211, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66, March.
    11. Pastine, Tuvana, 2005. "Social Learning in Continuous Time: When are Informational Cascades More Likely to be Inefficient?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5120, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Ryuichi Nakagawa, 2022. "Bank herding in loan markets: Evidence from geographical data in Japan," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 72-89, March.

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