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Persistence and Reversal in Herd Behavior: Theory and Application to the Decision to Go Public

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  • Lee Nelson

Abstract

We model rational herd behavior when the underlying value changes over time, with payoffs that are either dependent or independent of the underlying value. We show that herding does not last forever and is not monotone in signal quality. High correlation among agents' actions does not necessarily imply herding. This suggests alternative empirical methods are needed to detect herding. The model has many applications, including the IPO decision in which payoffs are state dependent. The model implies that the decision to go public is more likely associated with herding than the decision to delay an IPO. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee Nelson, 2002. "Persistence and Reversal in Herd Behavior: Theory and Application to the Decision to Go Public," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 65-95, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:15:y:2002:i:1:p:65-95
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    Cited by:

    1. Stolpe, Michael, 2004. "Non-market interaction in primary equity markets: evidence from France and Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1211, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
    3. Tuvana Pastine, 2004. "Comparative Statics in a Herding Model of Investment," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 260, Econometric Society.
    4. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:258-272 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Richard J. Rosen & Scott B. Smart & Chad J. Zutter, 2005. "Why do firms go public? evidence from the banking industry," Working Paper Series WP-05-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Stolpe, Michael, 2004. "Europe's entry into the venture capital business: efficiency and policy," Kiel Working Papers 1223, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Pastine, Ivan & Pastine, Tuvana, 2005. "Signal Accuracy and Informational Cascades," CEPR Discussion Papers 5219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
    9. Pastine, Tuvana, 2005. "Social Learning in Continuous Time: When are Informational Cascades More Likely to be Inefficient?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5120, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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