IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tkk/dpaper/dp153.html

Is globalization the root cause of declining inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • Juhana Hukkinen

    (Monetary Policy and Research Department of Bank of Finland)

  • Matti Viren

    (Monetary Policy and Research Department of Bank of Finland & Economics Department of University of Turku)

Abstract

This paper examines the reasons for the declining path of inflation since the 1970s. In particular, it focusses on the role of globalization – covering both changes in the global market structure and technical and structural developments in trade and production. In addition, the paper deals with changes in the basic transmission mechanisms of price and wage inflation. The paper makes use of different data from individual countries and panel of countries. These data show that the dispersion of inflation and the behavior of relative prices follow a pattern that is consistent with several globalization indicators. Also estimation results show that these indicators are useful in tracing the developments of trend inflation after the 1960s. Moreover, it is shown that the basic relationships between prices and costs are nonlinear depending on the level of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Juhana Hukkinen & Matti Viren, 2022. "Is globalization the root cause of declining inflation?," Discussion Papers 153, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ace-economics.fi/kuvat/dp153.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nigel Pain & Isabell Koske & Marte Sollie, 2008. "Globalisation and OECD consumer price inflation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-32.
    2. Hahn, Elke, 2020. "The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?," Working Paper Series 2485, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juhana Hukkinen & Matti Viren, 2024. "Was Globalization the Root Cause of Low Inflation?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(3), pages 337-370.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Satti, Saqlain Latif & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mujahid, Nooreen & Ali, Amjad, 2013. "Impact of Financial Development and Globalization on Inflation: The Role of Remittance and Economic Growth in Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 51675, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Nov 2013.
    2. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Galstyan, Vahagn, 2023. "Understanding the Joint Dynamics of Inflation and Wage Growth in the Euro Area," Research Technical Papers 11/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
    6. Rainer Masera, 2016. "Elementi per una rilettura dell’articolo di Paolo Sylos Labini: “Inflazione, disoccupazione e banca centrale: temi per una riconsiderazione critica” (Notes on Paolo Sylos Labini’s “Inflation, unemploy," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 69(273), pages 121-134.
    7. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    8. Jonathan Kearns, 2016. "Global inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 582, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Juan Carluccio & Erwan Gautier & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi, 2018. "Dissecting the Impact of Imports from Low-Wage Countries on French Consumer Prices," Working papers 672, Banque de France.
    10. Kouvavas, Omiros & Osbat, Chiara & Reinelt, Timo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2021. "Markups and inflation cyclicality in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2617, European Central Bank.
    11. Moses Tule & Afees Salisu & Charles Chiemeke, 2020. "Improving Nigeria’s Inflation Forecast with Oil Price: The Role of Estimators," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 191-229, March.
    12. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    13. Moses Tule & Afees A. Salisu & Charles Chimeke, 2018. "You are what you eat: The role of oil price in Nigeria inflation forecast," Working Papers 040, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    14. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2016. "Inflation dynamics and inflation expectations in Thailand," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 349-360, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Miguel Ampudia & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Théodore Renault, 2024. "The wage-price pass-through across sectors: evidence from the euro area," BIS Working Papers 1192, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Susmita Baulia The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Susmita Baulia to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tukkkfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.