IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20260012.html

Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention: A Cardiovascular Screening Experiment in the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Aurélien Baillon

    (emlyon Business School)

  • Joseph Capuno

    (University of the Philippines Diliman)

  • Aleli Kraft

    (University of the Philippines Diliman)

  • Jenny Kudymowa

    (Rethink Priorities)

  • Owen O'Donnell

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

We test whether a conditional cash lottery targets prevention on those doing too little because of inverse-S probability distortion that also causes overvaluation of a lottery. Consistent with theory, Filipinos perceiving their cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a wide intermediate interval (10%, 85%] are 3 percentage points (60%) less likely to have a check-up before baseline if they exhibit inverse- S distortion. A random lottery offer conditional on going for a check-up (CVD screening) increases the probability by 47 points overall. Estimates of compliance and lottery-induced CVD preventive care are larger (not significantly) for inverse- S (but also S) types perceiving intermediate risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Baillon & Joseph Capuno & Aleli Kraft & Jenny Kudymowa & Owen O'Donnell, 2026. "Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention: A Cardiovascular Screening Experiment in the Philippines," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-012/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/26012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Michael L., 2008. "Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1481-1495.
    2. Aurélien Baillon & Owen O'Donnell & Stella Quimbo & Kim van Wilgenburg, 2022. "Do time preferences explain low health insurance take‐up?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 951-983, December.
    3. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Aysil Emirmahmutoglu & Johannes Jaspersen & Richard Peter, 2022. "When Risk Perception Gets in the Way: Probability Weighting and Underprevention," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 70(3), pages 1371-1392, May.
    4. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    5. Berlin, Noémi & Kemel, Emmanuel & Lenglin, Vincent & Nebout, Antoine, 2026. "Paying none, some or all? Between-subject random incentives and preferences towards risk and time," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Sanderson, Eleanor & Windmeijer, Frank, 2016. "A weak instrument F-test in linear IV models with multiple endogenous variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(2), pages 212-221.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garcia-Fuentes, Pablo A. & Kennedy, P. Lynn & Ferreira, Gustavo F.C., 2025. "Growth effects of remittances in developing countries: A growth accounting approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Derksen, Laura & Kerwin, Jason Theodore & Reynoso, Natalia Ordaz & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Appointments: A More Effective Commitment Device for Health Behaviors," SocArXiv y8gh7, Center for Open Science.
    3. Jetter, Michael & Magnusson, Leandro M. & Roth, Sebastian, 2020. "Becoming sensitive: Males’ risk and time preferences after the 2008 financial crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Andrea La Nauze & Edson Severnini, 2025. "Air Pollution and Adult Cognition: Evidence from Brain Training," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(1), pages 221-255.
    5. Chaewon Baek & Vitaliia Yaremko, 2026. "The Puzzle of a Missing Wage‐Price Spiral: Experimental Evidence on Inflation Expectations and Labor Supply," Trinity Economics Papers tep0926, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Boehm, Christoph E., 2020. "Government consumption and investment: Does the composition of purchases affect the multiplier?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 80-93.
    7. Hull, Marie & Yan, Ji, 2024. "The impact of children's access to public health insurance on their cognitive development and behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Foreign Holdings of Public Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1155-1204.
    9. Hoffmann, Manuel & Mosquera, Roberto & Chadi, Adrian, 2019. "Vaccines at Work," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203661, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Bo Li, 2024. "Testing Business Cycle Theories: Evidence from the Great Recession," Papers 2403.04104, arXiv.org.
    11. Bo Li, 2026. "A Unified Credit Expansion Theory on Housing Cycle: Causal Evidence for Within- and Cross-Metro Patterns in the Prior, Boom, Bust, and Recovery Periods," Papers 2607.12205, arXiv.org.
    12. Estefan, Alejandro, 2026. "US manufacturing reallocation: Impacts on Mexican labor markets," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    13. Rodolphe Desbordes, 2022. "Financial foreign direct investment and the economic performance of developing countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1229-1257, September.
    14. Rocha, Bruno T. & Melo, Patrícia C. & Afonso, Nuno & de Abreu e Silva, João, 2023. "The local impacts of building a large motorway network: Urban growth, suburbanisation, and agglomeration," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    15. Bruno T. Rocha & Patrícia C. Melo & Nuno Afonso & João de Abreu e Silva, 2021. "Motorways, urban growth, and suburbanisation:evidence from three decades of motorway construction in Portugal," Working Papers REM 2021/0174, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Hossain, Md Amzad & Mahajan, Kanika & Sekhri, Sheetal, 2022. "Access to toilets and violence against women," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Charles Grant, 2025. "A new investigation into whether households are excessively sensitive to predictable changes in income," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 237-252, January.
    18. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens, 2022. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments with Multiple Endogenous Regressors," Staff Reports 1020, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens, 2022. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments for 2SLS with Multiple Endogenous Regressors," Working Papers 2208, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 26 Sep 2024.
    20. Shoji, Masahiro & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2022. "Sexual exploitation of trafficked children: Survey evidence from child sex workers in Bangladesh," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-117.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.