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Investor Sentiment and Employment

Author

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  • Maurizio Montone

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Remco C.J. Zwinkels

    (VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

Abstract

We find that investor sentiment should affect a firm's employment policy in a world with moral hazard and noise traders. Consistent with the model's predictions, we show that higher sentiment among US investors leads to: (1) higher employment growth worldwide; (2) lower labor productivity, as the growth in employment is not matched by real value added growth; and (3) positive wage growth in countries with a greater proportion of high-skill labor, but negative wage growth otherwise. We also find evidence that sentiment induces greater labor instability during financial crises, which sheds new light on the view that financial development has a "dark side". Overall, the results suggest that sentiment has real effects, especially in countries that attract more foreign direct investments from the US and that are perceived as more popular among US investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurizio Montone & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2015. "Investor Sentiment and Employment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-046/IV/DSF91, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.
    2. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    3. Rajeev Dehejia & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2007. "Financial Development and Pathways of Growth: State Branching and Deposit Insurance Laws in the United States, 1900–1940," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 239-272.
    4. R. David Mclean & Mengxin Zhao, 2014. "The Business Cycle, Investor Sentiment, and Costly External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1377-1409, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Philip Barrett & Sophia Chen & Miss Mali Chivakul & Ms. Deniz O Igan, 2021. "Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest," IMF Working Papers 2021/079, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gomes, Orlando, 2015. "Optimal resource allocation in a representative investor economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-84.
    3. Herculano, Miguel C. & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2023. "Investor sentiment and global economic conditions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 134-152.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; labor market; financial development; financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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