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Optimal Hedging with the Vector Autoregressive Model

Author

Listed:
  • Lukasz Gatarek

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Søren Johansen

    (University of Copenhagen, CREATES, Denmark)

Abstract

We derive the optimal hedging ratios for a portfolio of assets driven by a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive model with general cointegration rank. Our hedge is optimal in the sense of minimum variance portfolio. We consider a model that allows for the hedges to be cointegrated with the hedged asset and among themselves. We nd that the minimum variance hedge for assets driven by the CVAR, depends strongly on the portfolio holding period. The hedge is dened as a function of correlation and cointegration parameters. For short holding periods the correlation impact is predominant. For long horizons, the hedge ratio should overweight the cointegration parameters rather then short-run correlation information. In the innite horizon, the hedge ratios shall be equal to the cointegrating vector. The hedge ratios for any intermediate portfolio holding period should be based on the weighted average of correlation and cointegration parameters. The results are general and can be applied for any portfolio of assets that can be modeled by the CVAR of any rank and order.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukasz Gatarek & Søren Johansen, 2014. "Optimal Hedging with the Vector Autoregressive Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-022/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20140022
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    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/14022.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phillips, P C B, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 344-359, December.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    3. Vayanos, Dimitri, 2004. "Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. P.C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(4), pages 344-359, December.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hedging; cointegration; minimum variance portfolio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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