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A Multi-layer Scenario Analysis for Sustainable International Transport

Author

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  • Barry Ubbels
  • Caroline Rodenburg
  • Peter Nijkamp

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

It is clear that the future of the transport sector is fraught withuncertainties, as the system can be influenced by many factors thatcan develop in various ways. The aim of this paper is to gain insightinto the future development of the transportation sector. It presentsthe development of the transport sector based on four globalisationscenarios. On three different scale levels (global, European andDutch) four future images of the transportation market areconstructed. The expected implications of these scenarios are mappedout in a clear description of the various relevant aspects, such asmodal split and spatial organisation. In addition, this paper alsoprovides empirical insight into expected transport flows of passenger(passenger kilometres) and freight transport (ton-kilometres) in2020, based on data from 1995. It appears that globalisation leads inall scenarios and on each scale level to a considerable growth oftransported volumes.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Ubbels & Caroline Rodenburg & Peter Nijkamp, 2000. "A Multi-layer Scenario Analysis for Sustainable International Transport," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-102/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20000102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yoshitsugu Hayashi & Kenneth Button & Peter Nijkamp (ed.), 1999. "The Environment and Transport," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1517.
    2. World Bank, 1996. "Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 1996," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32391, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Melander, Lisa & Dubois, Anna & Hedvall, Klas & Lind, Frida, 2019. "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 178-189.

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