IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vua/wpaper/2000-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Different perspectives on the global development of transport

Author

Listed:
  • Ubbels, Barry

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

  • Rodenburg, Caroline
  • Nijkamp, Peter

Abstract

It may be clear that the future of the transport sector is fraught with uncertainties, as the system can be influenced by many factors that can develop in various ways. The aim of this paper is to get insight into the future development of the transportation sector seen from a world-wide perspective. This is done by applying a scenario approach and design four possible paths of transport. These future developments are presented here by sketching four global contrast images based on outcomes of earlier research. The outcomes for the transport sector, expressed in transported volumes for both passenger transport and freight transport, are first qualitatively described based on expected developments of several indicators. Next, based on those descriptions, quantitative numbers of transported volumes are calculated with the time horizon being 2020. It appears that all scenarios foresee a growth in transport volumes (for both passenger- and freight transport) world-wide. The achievement of sustainable mobility based on the outcomes presented in this paper may seem dificult and will be confronted with several hurdles. But policy changes and (unexpected) technology developments offer possibilities to realise this objective. Policy makers are thus faced with formidable policy challenges to achieve the Kyoto objectives in the next 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ubbels, Barry & Rodenburg, Caroline & Nijkamp, Peter, 2000. "Different perspectives on the global development of transport," Serie Research Memoranda 0026, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:2000-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://degree.ubvu.vu.nl/repec/vua/wpaper/pdf/20000026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoshitsugu Hayashi & Kenneth Button & Peter Nijkamp (ed.), 1999. "The Environment and Transport," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1517.
    2. World Bank, 1996. "Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 1996," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32391, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barry Ubbels & Caroline Rodenburg & Peter Nijkamp, 2003. "A multi-layer scenario analysis for sustainable international transport," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 69-103, February.
    2. Jürgen Zattler, 1996. "Trade policy in developing countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 31(5), pages 229-236, September.
    3. Nigel Harris, 1997. "Cities in a Global Economy: Structural Change and Policy Reactions," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(10), pages 1693-1703, October.
    4. Sawaneh, Banna, 2022. "Conceptual Clarifications Of Public Service Delivery, Public Policy, Public Administration And Governance In The Gambia," Ilorin Journal of Business and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, vol. 24(1), pages 38-58, February.
    5. Fischer, Bernhard, 1998. "Globalization and the competitiveness of regional blocks in comparative perspective," HWWA Discussion Papers 50, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    6. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
    7. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 1997. "Open economies work better! did Africa's protectionist policies cause its marginalization in world trade?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 889-904, June.
    8. Pinstrup-Andersen, Per & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul, 1997. "Food Security: A Global Perspective," 1997 Conference, August 10-16, 1997, Sacramento, California 197029, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Đurđica Stojanović & Jelena Ivetić & Marko Veličković, 2021. "Assessment of International Trade-Related Transport CO 2 Emissions—A Logistics Responsibility Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 1999. "Good governance and trade policy : are they the keys to Africa's global integration and growth?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2038, The World Bank.
    11. Yeats, Alexander J., 1998. "What can be expected from African regional trade arrangements? some empirical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2004, The World Bank.
    12. Wayne Nafziger & Juha Auvinen, 1997. "War, Hunger, and Displacement: An Econometric Investigation into the Sources of Humanitarian Emergencies," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1997-142, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Adelheid Holl & Ilaria Mariotti, 2018. "The Geography of Logistics Firm Location: The Role of Accessibility," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 337-361, June.
    14. M.M. El Toukhy, 1998. "Globalization and Developing Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 66(4), pages 221-232, December.
    15. Vitarelli, Marcelo Fabián, 2008. "Gobernanza, ciudadanía y democracia. El desafío latinoamericano," Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar, Entelequia y Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 8, pages 29-38, Fall.
    16. Scholtens, Bert & Kleinsmann, Renske, 2011. "Incentives for subcontractors to adopt CO2 emission reporting and reduction techniques," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1877-1883, March.
    17. Gounder, Rukmani, 2003. "Effectiveness of Globalization: A Case Study of Fiji," Sri Lankan Journal of Agricultural Economics, Sri Lanka Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA), vol. 5, pages 1-23.
    18. Alexandratos, Nikos, 1996. "China's projected cereals deficits in a world context," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, September.
    19. Hoffmann, Jan, 1998. "Concentration in liner shipping: its causes and impacts for ports and shipping services in developing regions," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 31094, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    20. Cristea, Anca & Hummels, David & Puzzello, Laura & Avetisyan, Misak, 2013. "Trade and the greenhouse gas emissions from international freight transport," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 153-173.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:2000-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: R. Dam (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fewvunl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.