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Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting

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Abstract

We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts of yearly GDP growth in a crisis period like the Covid- 19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log number of short-time workers as timely available current-quarter indicator. Yearly GDP growth forecasts serve cross-checking, in particular at the outbreak of the pandemic.

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  • Sylvia Kaufmann, 2022. "Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting," Working Papers 22.02R, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    • Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:2202r
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    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
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    5. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2020. "COVID-19 outbreak and beyond: the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Wegmüller, Philipp & Glocker, Christian & Guggia, Valentino, 2023. "Weekly economic activity: Measurement and informational content," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-243.
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