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Surveying the Impact of the Covid-19 Recession on the Financial Situation of Indebted Households

Author

Listed:
  • Andrej Cupák

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

  • Ján Klacso

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

  • Martin Suster

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

Abstract

We study the situation of indebted households hit by the COVID-19-driven recession, utilizing a unique survey conducted by the National Bank of Slovakia. As many other countries, Slovakia implemented a wide moratorium on debt repayments to financial institutions. While this is an important policy stabilization tool, we need information on the prospects of the households that postponed their debt repayments. The survey shows that 9%-12% of households that took advantage of the moratorium, or any type of forbearance, expect serious difficulties with resuming payments of their debts in the beginning of 2021. We show that the households that were vulnerable already before the crisis were more likely to use the deferral, or other type of easing of credit conditions. We also show that households with steeper income drops, deteriorating DSTI, or self-employed, are more likely to be pessimistic about their debt payment prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrej Cupák & Ján Klacso & Martin Suster, 2020. "Surveying the Impact of the Covid-19 Recession on the Financial Situation of Indebted Households," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  • Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1074
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Altavilla, Carlo & Barbiero, Francesca & Boucinha, Miguel & Burlon, Lorenzo, 2020. "The great lockdown: pandemic response policies and bank lending conditions," Working Paper Series 2465, European Central Bank.
    3. Eugen Tereanu & Mr. Marco Gross & Ján Klacso & Marco Forletta & Pavol Jurca, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures: A Quantitative Analysis for Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 2020/134, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso & Roman Vasil, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Borrower-Based Measures," Working and Discussion Papers OP 3/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    2. Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso, 2021. "Assessing real estate prices in Slovakia - a structural approach," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Andrej Cupak & Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso & Martin Suster, 2021. "Fates of indebted households during the Corona crisis: Survey results from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers OP 2/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stability; coronavirus pandemic; household credit risk; household expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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