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Bi-Polar Disorder: Exchange Rate Regimes, Economic Crises and the IMF

Author

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  • Graham Bird

    (University of Surrey)

  • Dane Rowlands

    (Carleton University)

Abstract

Over the course of the 1990s economists appeared to favour exchange rate regimes that were either completely flexible or rigidly fixed through mechanisms such as currency boards. According to this "bipolar" view of exchange rates, intermediate regimes were deemed to be ineffective and prone to crisis. This paper examines the link between exchange rate regimes and International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme use and finds fairly strong evidence that countries with intermediate exchange rate regimes are less likely to go to the IMF than others. To the extent that International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes are a proxy for balance of payments difficulties, this finding supports the more recent, nuanced, literature on exchange rate regime choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2005. "Bi-Polar Disorder: Exchange Rate Regimes, Economic Crises and the IMF," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0705, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0705
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2005/DP07-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521016957, January.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    3. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
    4. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
    7. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
    8. Pedro Rey Biel, 2001. "Why is There No AIDS Vaccine?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(4), pages 117-132, October.
    9. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, December.
    11. Graham Bird, 2004. "Where do we Stand on Choosing Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing and Emerging Economies?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: International Finance and the Developing Economies, chapter 3, pages 34-50, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Morris Goldstein (ed.), 1999. "Safeguarding Prosperity in a Global Financial System: The Future International Financial Architecture," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 50, April.
    13. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 2003/223, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
    15. Bird, Graham, 1996. "Borrowing from the IMF: The policy implications of recent empirical research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(11), pages 1753-1760, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexis Cruz-Rodriguez, 2013. "Choosing and Assessing Exchange Rate Regimes: a Survey of the Literature," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 28(2), pages 37-61, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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