Prevalence and substitution effects in tobacco consumption: A discrete choice analysis of panel data
This paper analyzes tobacco demand within a discrete choice framework. Using binomial and multinomial logit models with random effects, and an unbalanced panel data set of Norwegian households over a twenty year period, we first consider the decisions a) whether to smoke or not, and b) given the choice is to smoke, whether to smoke hand rolled or manufactured cigarettes. Next, we consider a multinomial logit framework, in which the households choose between no tobacco, only manufactured cigarettes, only hand rolled cigarettes, and a combination of manufactured and hand rolled cigarettes. In this process, we utilize the potential offered by panel data to investigate unobserved heterogeneity, which is crucial for commodities where consumers have different tastes and where users tend to become addicted. Using Maximum Likelihood in combination with bootstrap estimation of standard errors, we find that income and prices influence the 'type of tobacco choice probabilities' at least as strongly as the 'smoking/non-smoking probabilities'. Cet.par., an increase in the price of manufactured cigarettes could lead consumers to switch to hand rolled cigarettes, rather than quit smoking. Socio-demographic variables seem to be at least as important in explaining the discrete aspects of tobacco consumption as income and prices. Finally, we find significant unobserved household specific effects in the smoking pattern.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O.Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway|
Phone: (+47) 21 09 00 00
Fax: +47 - 62 88 55 95
Web page: http://www.ssb.no/en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joel L. Horowitz, 1996. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics: Theory and Numerical Performance," Econometrics 9602009, EconWPA, revised 05 Mar 1996.
- Knut R. Wangen & Erik Biørn, 2001. "Individual Heterogeneity and Price Responses in Tobacco Consumption: A Two-Commodity Analysis of Unbalanced Panel Data," Discussion Papers 294, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Miles, Daniel, 2000. " The Probability That a Smoker Does Not Purchase Tobacco: A Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(5), pages 647-56, December.
- Frank J. Chaloupka & Kenneth E. Warner, 1999.
"The Economics of Smoking,"
NBER Working Papers
7047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McFadden, Daniel L., 1984. "Econometric analysis of qualitative response models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1395-1457 Elsevier.
- Nielsen, H.S. & Rosholm, M., 1997. "The Incidence of Unemployment: Identifying Quit and Layoffs," Papers 97-15, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
- Richard B. Howarth & Kjell Arne Brekke, 1998. "Status Preferences and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 240, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Kjell Arne Brekke & Richard B. Howarth & Karine Nyborg, 1998. "Are there Social Limits to Growth?," Discussion Papers 239, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (L MaasÃ¸)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.