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Performances et politiques de croissance : un éclairage empirique à partir d’une étude de l’effet de la taille des pays et nouvelles réflexions théoriques

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Jean-Luc Gaffard

    (OFCE)

Les stratégies de croissance visent généralement à améliorer les conditions d’offre lesquelles sont censées déterminer le taux de croissance potentiel. La demande est reléguée au rang de variable qui n’influence le produit et l’emploi qu’à court terme. La condition sine qua non pour que cette affirmation soit vraie est que l’économie soit parfaitement coordonnée, quel que soit l’équilibre sur lequel elle est coordonnée. Si tel n’est pas le cas, les déséquilibres de marché se propagent, des effets d’hystérèse se manifestent, qui impliquent que la demande influence les performances à moyen terme. De fait, une analyse empirique des performances de croissance, des contributions de la demande et des politiques mises en œuvre dans différents pays de l’OCDE, sur deux périodes différentes, conforte cette appréciation. L’emploi des techniques non paramétriques d’analyse des distributions entre groupes de pays, en contrôlant pour la taille et l’appartenance à la zone euro, révèle des différences marquées de performances entre pays de taille différente, mais aussi de même taille. Ces différences sont davantage marquées au sein de la zone euro qu’à l’extérieur. Elles sont liées à des dynamiques divergentes des composantes de la demande ainsi qu’à des différences de stratégies budgétaires, d’ouverture et structurelles. De tels résultats empiriques appellent à réfléchir sur les voies et moyens d’une analyse de moyen terme des modes et des politiques de croissance.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2010, pp.213-248
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hc01napj8
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