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La transition écologique : incertitude, irréversibilité et modèle institutionnel

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  • Jean-Luc Gaffard

    (Université Côte d'Azur
    GREDEG CNRS
    OFCE Sciences-Po
    Institut Universitaire de France)

Abstract

Réfléchir en économiste sur la transition écologique c'est, inévitablement, s'interroger sur la nature et les sources de la croissance, sur les conditions du bien-être individuel et collectif, sur la rationalité des comportements dans la perspective d'énoncer des conditions de viabilité de cette transition et de faisabilité du nouveau régime de développement. La transition écologique n'est autre qu'une nouvelle rupture, la conséquence d'une nouvelle innovation dont l'économie industrielle de marché est coutumière avec cette différence, cependant, que la survie de l'espèce humaine est en jeu. La thèse qui est défendue ici est qu'il ne peut y avoir de croissance et plus généralement d'activité humaine sans atteinte aux ressources primaires disponibles et qu'il n'existe pas d'équilibre de croissance nulle ou de croissance "verte". En revanche, il est possible de concevoir un modèle institutionnel qui minimise les dommages économiques et environnementaux. Ce modèle donne une place essentielle à une rationalité procédurale et au jeu des intelligences collectives organisées pour synchroniser de multiples horloges, faire valoir des formes de prudence et ainsi faire face à l'incertitude radicale qui pèse sur les technologies et les marchés futurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2021. "La transition écologique : incertitude, irréversibilité et modèle institutionnel," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-04, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France, revised Feb 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    développement; écologie; croissance; inégalité; institution; irréversibilité; rationalité; temps; transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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