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L'énigme des exportations revisitée: Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Marion Cochard

Abstract

Cet article part du constat que les difficultés rencontrées pour expliquer l’évolution récente des exportations françaises se retrouvent dans de nombreux pays industrialisés. Sur la période récente, les paramètres des relations de long terme deviennent généralement instables. Les modélisations habituellement proposées peinent à rendre compte des effets de compétitivité hors-prix, l’existence de contraintes d’offre et les conséquences de l’intégration commerciale croissante des pays émergents. De plus, ces différents éléments peuvent entraîner des ruptures rendant les tests habituellement utilisés particulièrement fragiles. C’est pourquoi, nous adoptons une approche en données de panel afin de proposer un cadre commun et robuste économétriquement pour les pays industrialisés. Les tests de cointégration en données de panel permettent alors de montrer que le modèle standard où les exportations sont expliquées par la demande adressée et la compétitivité-prix n’est pas rejeté par les données, même s’il semble plus fragile sur la période récente. Les modèles faisant intervenir les effets de qualité, les contraintes d’offre et l’ouverture mondiale permettent d’améliorer significativement la modélisation des équations d’exportation sur la période récente. L’hypothèse de cointégration en panel est en effet le plus souvent validée, montrant que le passage à la dimension panel permet d’apporter un nouvel éclairage à cette problématique.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée: Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6404, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6404
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu, 2013. "La quête de la competitivité ouvre la voie de la déflation," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6, Sciences Po.
    2. Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 29-66.
    3. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2014. "Les enjeux du triple mandat de la BCE," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 175-186.
    4. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2014. "Dealing with the ECB's triple mandate?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53ccj34tat8, Sciences Po.
    5. Balázs Égert & Rafaƚ Kierzenkowski, 2014. "Exports and Property Prices in France: Are They Connected?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 387-409, March.
    6. Rafal Kierzenkowski, 2009. "The Challenge of Restoring French Competitiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 720, OECD Publishing.
    7. Decreux, Yvan & Milner, Chris, 2010. "Some New Insights into the Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Area: The Role of Non Tariff Barriers," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 783-817.
    8. Département analyse et prévision & Éric Heyer & Marion Cochard & Bruno Ducoudré & Hervé Péléraux, 2014. "France : ajustements graduels. Perspectives 2014-2015 pour l'économie française," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 85-143.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Données de panel non stationnaires; Cointégration; Commerce; Équations d’exportation;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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