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Les déterminants du solde de la balance des transactions courantes au Luxembourg

  • Abdelaziz Rouabah

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    La balance des transactions courantes de la balance des paiements luxembourgeoise est confrontée à une forte modification de ses composantes: déficit persistant de la balance des biens, dégradation du solde des revenus d'investissement, évolution inquiétante des transferts courants,... Mais quelles en sont les causes? Sont-elles d'origine structurelle ou sont-elles d'une nature passagère? Sont-elles liées à une perte de compétitivité ou sont-elles la consequence d'une croissance économique atone favorisant ainsi le déséquilibre de la balance des operations courantes? C'est à cet ensemble de questions que nous allons essayer de répondre en adoptant deux types d'approches. La première consiste à utiliser des modèles de la balance commerciale (biens et services) de type «Mundell-Fleming» afin d'estimer des élasticités critiques (condition de Marshall Lerner) ou de déterminer l'existence d'une courbe en J. La seconde approche consiste à utiliser les modèles intertemporels de la balance courante dans lesquels les économies échangent un même bien (ou deux biens échangeables: importation et exportation) afin de tester les comportements de lissage intertemporel de la consommation, de l'épargne et de l'investissement des agents.

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    File URL: http://www.bcl.lu/fr/publications/cahiers_etudes/13/BCLWP013.pdf
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    Paper provided by Central Bank of Luxembourg in its series BCL working papers with number 13.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp013
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcl.lu/

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