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Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive ?

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  • Marion Cochard

Abstract

This paper deals with recent developments in foreign trade and notably with the fall of the French market shares. We first describe the deterioration of the French external trade since the beginning of the 2000?s. We show that within the euro zone, Germany is the exception rather than France, and that the difference between both countries cannot be explained by geographical or sector specialization. We analyse then different competitiveness indicators. We show that French companies succeed in containing prices by reducing margins, and that classic modelling using price-competitiveness does not manage to explain market share deterioration. Finally, we extend the standard model with nonprice competitiveness, supply indicators, and we introduce an indicator of world trade openness to take into account the emergence of new actors in world trade. JEL classification: F140, F170.

Suggested Citation

  • Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 29-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_106_0029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    2. Nivat, D. & Villetelle, J-P., 2006. "Les mauvaises performances du commerce extérieur de la France sont-elles liées à un problème de demande ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 146, pages 21-31.
    3. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
    4. Sarah Guillou, 2008. "Pourquoi les entreprises françaises souffrent-elles de la force de l'euro ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6188, Sciences Po.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    6. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 67-100.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6188 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 67-100.
    2. Lionel Nesta, 2010. "Commentaire : Désindustrialisation ou mutation industrielle ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 297-301.
    3. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu, 2013. "La quête de la competitivité ouvre la voie de la déflation," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6, Sciences Po.
    4. Bruno Ducoudré & Éric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive. Quel pays en profitera le plus ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 221-253.
    5. Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation : Perspectives 2014-2015," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c6c7hcjgm91, Sciences Po.
    6. Département analyse et prévision & Éric Heyer & Marion Cochard & Bruno Ducoudré & Hervé Péléraux, 2014. "France : ajustements graduels. Perspectives 2014-2015 pour l'économie française," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 85-143.
    7. Balázs Égert & Rafaƚ Kierzenkowski, 2014. "Exports and Property Prices in France: Are They Connected?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 387-409, March.
    8. Bruno Ducoudré & Eric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive," Post-Print hal-01093016, HAL.
    9. Rafal Kierzenkowski, 2009. "The Challenge of Restoring French Competitiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 720, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    external trade; competitiveness; error correction model;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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