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L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?

  • Christophe Blot
  • Marion Cochard

The starting point of the paper comes from the inability of standard models to explain the recent evolution of exports in industrialized countries. The long term price and income elasticities are unstable and the cointegration hypothesis is rejected. We consider explaining exports in a panel model using unit root and cointegration tests. This approach is fully suited as it allows for various hypotheses on the heterogeneity of parameters. It seems that the standard approach is not systematically rejected. We also introduced non price factors to take into account the effect of quality, the existence of supply constraints and the world trade openness. The panel and individual equations are successfully improved. Cointegration hypothesis is accepted and estimates are generally consistent. JEL classification: C330, F140, F170.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): n° 106 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 67-100

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_106_0067
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  1. Matthieu Crozet & Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 2004. "Trade performances, product quality perceptions and the estimation of trade price-elasticities," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00096826, HAL.
  2. Christophe Hurlin & Valérie Mignon, 2006. "Une Synthèse des Tests de Racine Unitaire sur Données de Panel," Post-Print halshs-00078770, HAL.
  3. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness: Errata," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1203, December.
  4. Paul Krugman, 1988. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Keiko Murata & Dave Turner & David Rae & Laurence Le Fouler, 2000. "Modelling Manufacturing Export Volumes Equations: A System Estimation Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 235, OECD Publishing.
  6. Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Une Synthèse des Tests de Cointégration sur Données de Panel," Post-Print halshs-00270210, HAL.
  7. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
  8. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  9. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00096826 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  11. Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Françoise Le Gallo, 2002. "Compétitivités prix et qualité dans le commerce international : une analyse empirique des échanges de 12 pays de l’OCDE," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 152(1), pages 93-113.
  12. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  13. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
  14. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-74, June.
  15. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  16. Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 29-66.
  17. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Les déterminants du solde de la balance des transactions courantes au Luxembourg," BCL working papers 13, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  18. Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6403, Sciences Po.
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