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L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?

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  • Christophe Blot
  • Marion Cochard

Abstract

The starting point of the paper comes from the inability of standard models to explain the recent evolution of exports in industrialized countries. The long term price and income elasticities are unstable and the cointegration hypothesis is rejected. We consider explaining exports in a panel model using unit root and cointegration tests. This approach is fully suited as it allows for various hypotheses on the heterogeneity of parameters. It seems that the standard approach is not systematically rejected. We also introduced non price factors to take into account the effect of quality, the existence of supply constraints and the world trade openness. The panel and individual equations are successfully improved. Cointegration hypothesis is accepted and estimates are generally consistent. JEL classification: C330, F140, F170.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 67-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_106_0067
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    21. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2014. "Les enjeux du triple mandat de la BCE," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 175-186.
    2. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu, 2013. "La quête de la compétitivité ouvre la voie de la déflation," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6, Sciences Po.
    3. Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03588599, HAL.
    4. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2014. "Dealing with the ECB's triple mandate?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53ccj34tat8, Sciences Po.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6403 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 29-66.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53ccj34tat80tq7f6ff0qvvjtj is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Decreux, Yvan & Milner, Chris, 2010. "Some New Insights into the Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Area: The Role of Non Tariff Barriers," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 783-817.
    9. Balázs Égert & Rafaƚ Kierzenkowski, 2014. "Exports and Property Prices in France: Are They Connected?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 387-409, March.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5ijkqb693t96eroonv2394h9ig is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive," Post-Print hal-03588599, HAL.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2p94ecij is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Rafal Kierzenkowski, 2009. "The Challenge of Restoring French Competitiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 720, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    non stationary panel; cointegration; trade; exports' equations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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