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Immobilier et politique monétaire

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Heyer
  • Xavier Timbeau

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Nous proposons dans cet article une modélisation et des estimations économétriques permettant de représenter et de quantifier le canal de stimulation monétaire par l’immobilier. Cette modélisation apparaît robuste, conduit à un ordre de grandeur plausible et permet de mesurer les différences de sensibilité des différents pays à la stimulation monétaire entreprise depuis 2001. D’après nos estimations, la sensibilité de l’économie européenne à une baisse des taux d’intérêt est deux à trois fois inférieure à celle de l’économie américaine. Combinée à une réactivité plus faible et plus timide de la banque centrale, cela implique une moindre régulation de la conjoncture de la zone euro par les taux d’intérêt. La moindre sensibilité de l’économie européenne résulte de facteurs multiples et complexes : d’une part, les évolutions défavorables du revenu et du chômage ont limité le développement de l’endettement des ménages en France et en Allemagne ; d’autre part, des facteurs structurels, liés au fonctionnement du système bancaire, limitent l’impact de la politique monétaire via ce canal en Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 1996. "Immobilier et politique monétaire," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1753, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1753
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    File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/1753/resources/7-96.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4189 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version : e-mod.fr," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 245-300.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1631 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L’évolution des crédits à l’habitat en France : une grille d’analyse en termes de cycles," Working papers 172, Banque de France.
    2. Gerard Cornilleau & Jerome Creel, 2014. "Financialisation and the Financial and Economic Crises: The Case of France," FESSUD studies fstudy22, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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