IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spa/wpaper/2026wpecon17.html

Voting in the Heat of the Moment: Climate Change Salience and Electoral Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Araujo

  • Leila Pereira

  • Rogerio Santarrosa

Abstract

We examine the impact of momentary temperature changes on voting behavior in the Brazilian presidential elections from 2010 to 2018, focusing on the candidacy of Marina Silva, a prominent pro-environment politician. Using data on municipality-level voting and daily wet bulb temperature, we find that an increase in temperature on election day relative to its historical mean increases votes for Marina Silva. This effect is driven by the salience of climate change, influencing last-minute voting decisions. Temperature effects are concentrated on election day and the day before, with no impact from earlier pre-election days, highlighting the transient nature of climate salience effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Araujo & Leila Pereira & Rogerio Santarrosa, 2026. "Voting in the Heat of the Moment: Climate Change Salience and Electoral Behavior," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2026_17, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2026wpecon17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Araujo_Pereira_Santarrosa_17WP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
    2. Costa, Francisco & Szerman, Dimitri & Assunção, Juliano, 2025. "The environmental costs of political interference: Evidence from power plants in the Amazon," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Adrien Fabre & Tobias Kruse & Bluebery Planterose & Ana Sanchez Chico & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2025. "Fighting Climate Change: International Attitudes toward Climate Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(4), pages 1258-1300, April.
    4. Rafael Araujo & Francisco Costa & Teevrat Garg, 2024. "Going Viral: Public Attention and Environmental Action in the Amazon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(6), pages 1605-1627.
    5. Darwin Choi & Zhenyu Gao & Wenxi Jiang, 2020. "Attention to Global Warming," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1112-1145.
    6. Hong, Yumin, 2025. "Heat and humidity on early-life outcomes: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Olivier Deschênes & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality, and Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 659-681, November.
    8. repec:osf:socarx:6y7vk_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Amrit Amirapu & Irma Clots-Figueras & Juan Pablo Rud, 2022. "Climate Change and Political Participation: Evidence from India," Studies in Economics 2204, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    10. Roman Hoffmann & Raya Muttarak & Jonas Peisker & Piero Stanig, 2022. "Climate change experiences raise environmental concerns and promote Green voting," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 148-155, February.
    11. Araujo, Daniel & Barreto, Yuri & Castro, Danny & Tigre, Robson, 2024. "Illegal markets and contemporary slavery: Evidence from the mahogany trade in the Amazon," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    12. Michael Coury, 2025. "Climate Risk and Preferences over the Size of Government: Evidence from California Wildfires," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 697-710, May.
    13. Heilmann, Kilian & Kahn, Matthew E. & Tang, Cheng Keat, 2021. "The urban crime and heat gradient in high and low poverty areas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. A. Baccini & S. J. Goetz & W. S. Walker & N. T. Laporte & M. Sun & D. Sulla-Menashe & J. Hackler & P. S. A. Beck & R. Dubayah & M. A. Friedl & S. Samanta & R. A. Houghton, 2012. "Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 182-185, March.
    15. Bragança, Arthur & Dahis, Ricardo, 2022. "Cutting special interests by the roots: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    16. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    17. Burgess, Robin & Costa, Francisco J M & Olken, Ben, 2019. "The Brazilian Amazon’s Double Reversal of Fortune," SocArXiv 67xg5, Center for Open Science.
    18. Baylis, Patrick, 2020. "Temperature and temperament: Evidence from Twitter," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Marshall Burke & Felipe González & Patrick Baylis & Sam Heft-Neal & Ceren Baysan & Sanjay Basu & Solomon Hsiang, 2018. "Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 723-729, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cosaert, Sam & Nieto Castro, Adrian & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Temperature and the Timing of Work," IZA Discussion Papers 16480, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Sam Cosaert & Adrián Nieto & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2023. "Temperature and Joint Time Use," CESifo Working Paper Series 10464, CESifo.
    3. Araujo, Rafael & Assunção, Juliano & Bragança, Arthur, 2025. "Transportation infrastructure and deforestation in the Amazon," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Gibney, Garreth & McDermott, Thomas K.J. & Cullinan, John, 2023. "Temperature, morbidity, and behavior in milder climates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Joshua S. Graff Zivin & Anthony Lepinteur & Matthew J. Neidell & Adrian Nieto Castro, 2025. "A Cold Stop: Temperature, Unemployment and Joblessness Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 34487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Benedikt Janzen, 2022. "Temperature and Mental Health: Evidence from Helpline Calls," Papers 2207.04992, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    7. Carreira, Igor & Costa, Francisco & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2024. "The deforestation effects of trade and agricultural productivity in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Lint Barrage & Gustav Fredriksson, 2026. "Temperature Anomalies and Carbon Pricing Support: Evidence from a National Referendum," Trinity Economics Papers tep1326, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Drescher, Katharina & Janzen, Benedikt, 2025. "When weather wounds workers: The impact of temperature on workplace accidents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    10. Albanese, Andrea & Deschenes, Olivier & Gathmann, Christina & Nieto, Adrian, 2025. "Extreme Temperatures, Health and Retirement," Working Papers 2025:8, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 28 Oct 2025.
    11. Klaus Deininger & Aparajita Goyal, 2024. "Land Policies for Resilient and Equitable Growth in Africa [Des politiques foncières pour une croissance résiliente et équitable en Afrique - Résumé analytique]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 41451, April.
    12. repec:osf:socarx:hy3np_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Katharina Drescher & Benedikt Janzen, 2023. "When Weather Wounds Workers: The Impact of Temperature on Workplace Accidents," Working Papers 226, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    14. Tommaso Colussi & Ingo E. Isphording & Nico Pestel, 2021. "Minority Salience and Political Extremism," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-271, July.
    15. Exbrayat, Nelly & Stephane, Victor, 2025. "Does urbanization cause crime? Evidence from rural–urban migration in South Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Guglielmo Zappalà, 2023. "Drought Exposure and Accuracy: Motivated Reasoning in Climate Change Beliefs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(3), pages 649-672, August.
    17. Maria Alice Moz-Christofoletti & Paula Carvalho Pereda & Wesley Campanharo, 2022. "Does Decentralized and Voluntary Commitment Reduce Deforestation? The Effects of Programa Municípios Verdes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(1), pages 65-100, May.
    18. Baggio, Michele & Surya Narayana, Revathy & Uchida, Shinsuke, 2026. "Heat and hate: How temperature triggers discriminatory violence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    19. Jorge M. Uribe, 2023. ""Fiscal crises and climate change"," IREA Working Papers 202303, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2023.
    20. Cisneros, Elías & Kis-Katos, Krisztina, 2024. "Unintended environmental consequences of anti-corruption strategies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    21. Díaz, Juan-José & Saldarriaga, Victor, 2023. "A drop of love? Rainfall shocks and spousal abuse: Evidence from rural Peru," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2026wpecon17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Garcia Duarte The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Pedro Garcia Duarte to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuspbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.