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Temperature Anomalies and Carbon Pricing Support: Evidence from a National Referendum

Author

Listed:
  • Lint Barrage

    (Chair of Energy and Climate Economics, ETH Zurich)

  • Gustav Fredriksson

    (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

What drives voter decisions on carbon pricing? Analyzing Switzerland's 2021 CO2 Act referendum, this paper finds that support was substantially higher in municipalities experiencing unusually warm weather during the voting period. This effect is most robust relative to a recent temperature baseline, consistent with a 'frog in hot water' effect. Opposition was stronger in areas with higher correlates of policy costs, such as car ownership and manufacturing employment. Evidence on long‐run temperature trends is mixed. These findings suggest that future weather anomalies may increase electoral support for carbon pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Lint Barrage & Gustav Fredriksson, 2026. "Temperature Anomalies and Carbon Pricing Support: Evidence from a National Referendum," Trinity Economics Papers tep1326, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1326
    as

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    File URL: https://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2026/TEP1326.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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