Brave Old World: On the Historical Roots of Interstate Conflicts

We show empirically that interstate conflicts are less likely among countries that share more of their oral tradition, as enshrined in the folktales. Popular tales and narratives are related to expectations and beliefs held about the other parties behavior: larger similarity in the systems of beliefs in the populations - cultural relatedness- reduces information frictions in dispute resolutions and negotiation failures between states. To validate this interpretation, we show that countries with more oral tradition in common are more likely to form military alliances, more likely to participate to the same international organizations, more likely to vote similarly in the UN general assembly, more likely to trade with each other and, in case a conflicts breaks out, more likely to terminate it with a negotiation.