The East European Financial Crisis
This paper discusses the global financial crisis of 2008/9 in thirteen countries, the ten new EU members that previously were communist and the three countries of Western former Soviet Union. Their problems were excessive current account deficits and private foreign debt, currency mismatches, and high inflation, while public finances were in good shape. The dominant cause was fixed exchange rates. Many lessons can be drawn from this crisis. A dollar peg makes no sense in this part of the world. The five currency boards in the region have lacked credibility. By contrast, inflation targeting has worked eminently. The euro has proven credible both in the countries that officially adopted it and in the countries that adopted it unilaterally. With the exception of Hungary, all the countries in the region have displayed decent fiscal policies. No government should accept large domestic loans in foreign currency and they can be regulated away. The IMF has successfully returned to the original Washington consensus with relatively few conditions: a reasonable budget balance and a realistic exchange rate policy, while focusing more on bank restructuring. The most controversial issue is the role of the ECB. The ECB should facilitate the accession of willing EU members to the euro by relaxing the ERM II conditions.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +48 22 206 29 00
Fax: +48 22 206 29 01
Web page: http://www.case-research.eu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2006.
"Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe,"
IMF Working Papers
06/188, International Monetary Fund.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp161, IIIS.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2005.
"Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals,"
NBER Working Papers
11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 73-120 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
- Zsolt Darvas & Gyorgy Szapary, 2008.
"Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies,"
IEHAS Discussion Papers
0824, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
- Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," Working Papers 0801, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
- Zsolt Darvas & Gy�rgy Szap�ry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Zsolt Darvas & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2008. "Avoiding a new European divide," Policy Briefs 227, Bruegel.
- Haselmann, Rainer, 2006. "Strategies of foreign banks in transition economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 283-299, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009.
"Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 480-86, May.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," NBER Working Papers 14826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2006.
"The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
409, Central Bank of Chile.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dabrowski, Marek, 2006.
"Rethinking balance-of-payments constraints in a globalized world,"
11962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marek Dabrowski, 2006. "Rethinking balance-of-payments constraints in a globalized world," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0330, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
- Jean Pisani-Ferry & Adam Posen, . "The euro at ten: the next global currency?," Books, Bruegel, number 303, March.
- Anders Aslund & Marek Dabrowski, 2008. "Challenges of Globalization: Imbalances and Growth," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4181, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Agata Kwiek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.