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Macroeconomic Model for Ukraine


  • Miroslaw Gronicki
  • Katarzyna Pietka


This paper presents the most recent version of the quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Ukrainian economy, its assumptions and possible applications. This model represents an unorthodox approach in analysing economies in transition. It covers transactions in both official and shadow economies. The volume and value of shadow transactions were estimated using an unconventional methodology, beginning with the analyses of overall consumer demand. This, in turn, was derived from official households surveys. The next steps included estimating cross-border trade and investment-in-kind. Possible applications of the model are: short- and medium-run forecasts based on the whole model, projections of particular variables, and building various scenarios of policy-mix in Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslaw Gronicki & Katarzyna Pietka, 1999. "Macroeconomic Model for Ukraine," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0190, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0190

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Muellbauer, John, 1994. "The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 1-41, Summer.
    2. Georges de Menil & Andrei Jirniy & Boris Najman & Oleksandr Rohozynsky, 1998. "A Model of Ukrainian Macroeconomic Indicators," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0126, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Dave Turner & Pete Richardson & Sylvie Rauffet, 1996. "Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 167, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. van Aarle, Bas & de Jong, Eelke & Sosoian, Robert, 2006. "Exchange rate management in Ukraine: Is there a case for more flexibility?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 282-305, October.


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