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Impact Evaluation of Merger Decisions

  • Oliver Budzinski

    ()

    (Department of Environmental and Business Economics, University of Southern Denmark)

This paper provides a comparative analysis of methods for the empirical ex post evaluation of merger control decisions. It develops a competition-policy oriented framework of assessment criteria for the leading evaluation methods and applies them to structural modeling and simulation, differences-in-differences methods, event studies as well as survey-based methods. It concludes that a method-mix is recommendable, however, under the exclusion of event studies that fail to secure a minimum level of reliability regarding the evaluation results. Furthermore, it warns against overly optimistic expectations about the effects of systematic impact evaluations of merger decisions. I like to thank the participants of the OECD Roundtable „Impact Evaluation of Merger Decisions“ (Paris, Juni 2011), Arndt Christiansen and Knud Sinding for valua-ble comments on earlier versions of this paper as well as Janne Mordhorst for valuable editorial assistance.

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File Function: First version, 2011-09
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Paper provided by University of Southern Denmark, Department of Environmental and Business Economics in its series Working Papers with number 112/11.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sdk:wpaper:112
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  1. Ellert, James C, 1976. "Mergers, Antitrust Law Enforcement and Stockholder Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 715-32, May.
  2. McAfee, R. Preston & Williams, Michael A., 1988. "Can event studies detect anticompetitive mergers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 199-203.
  3. Duso, Tomaso & Gugler, Klaus & Yurtoglu, Burcin B., 2011. "How effective is European merger control?," DICE Discussion Papers 15, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  4. Brian Diepold & Robert M. Feinberg & David K.Round & Jeremy Tustin, 2007. "Merger Impacts on Investor Expectations: An Event Study for Australia," Working Papers 2007-07, American University, Department of Economics.
  5. Orley C. Ashenfelter & Daniel S. Hosken & Matthew C. Weinberg, 2011. "The Price Effects of a Large Merger of Manufacturers: A Case Study of Maytag-Whirlpool," NBER Working Papers 17476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sven-Olof Fridolfsson & Johan Stennek, 2010. "Industry Concentration and Welfare: On the Use of Stock Market Evidence from Horizontal Mergers," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(308), pages 734-750, October.
  7. Duso, Tomaso & Neven, Damien J & Röller, Lars-Hendrik, 2003. "The Political Economy of European Merger Control: Evidence Using Stock Market Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 3880, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Peters, Craig, 2006. "Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the U.S. Airline Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 627-49, October.
  9. Oliver Budzinski & Isabel Ruhmer, 2009. "Merger Simulation in Competition Policy: A Survey," Working Papers 82/09, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Environmental and Business Economics.
  10. Eckbo, B Espen, 1992. " Mergers and the Value of Antitrust Deterrence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1005-29, July.
  11. Pinkse, Joris & Slade, Margaret E., 2004. "Mergers, brand competition, and the price of a pint," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 617-643, June.
  12. Stillman, Robert, 1983. "Examining antitrust policy towards horizontal mergers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 225-240, April.
  13. Tomaso Duso & Klaus Gugler & Burcin Yurtoglu, 2006. "Is the Event Study Methodology Useful for Merger Analysis? A Comparison of Stock Market and Accounting Data," CIG Working Papers SP II 2006-19, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  14. Oliver Budzinski, 2009. "Modern Industrial Economics and Competition Policy: Open Problems and Possible Limits," Working Papers 93/09, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Environmental and Business Economics.
  15. Paul W. Dobson & Claudio A. Piga, 2009. "Mergers and Business Model Assimilation: Evidence from Low-Cost Airlines Takeovers," Discussion Paper Series 2009_2, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Feb 2009.
  16. Duso, Tomaso & Gugler, Klaus & Szücs, Florian, 2012. "An empirical assessment of the 2004 EU merger policy reform," DICE Discussion Papers 58, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  17. Josef Drexl & Wolfgang Kerber & Rupprecht Podszun (ed.), 2011. "Competition Policy and the Economic Approach," Books, Edward Elgar, number 13786, March.
  18. Matthew Weinberg, 2007. "The Price Effects of Horizontal Mergers: A Survey," Working Papers 62, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  19. Mats Bergman, 2008. "Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? or Measuring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Competition Enforcement," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 387-409, December.
  20. Oliver Budzinski, 2010. "An Institutional Analysis of the Enforcement Problems in Merger Control," Working Papers 101/10, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Environmental and Business Economics.
  21. Eckbo, B Espen & Wier, Peggy, 1985. "Antimerger Policy under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act: A Reexamination of the Market Power Hypothesis," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 119-49, April.
  22. Damien Neven & Hans Zenger, 2008. "Ex Post Evaluation of Enforcement: A Principal-Agent Perspective," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 477-490, December.
  23. Aviv Nevo, 2000. "Mergers with Differentiated Products: The Case of the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(3), pages 395-421, Autumn.
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