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Impact evaluation of merger control decisions

  • Budzinski, Oliver

This paper provides a comparative analysis of methods for the empirical ex post evaluation of merger control decisions. It develops a competition-policy oriented framework of assessment criteria for the leading evaluation methods and applies them to structural modeling and simulation, differences-in-differences methods, event studies as well as survey-based methods. It concludes that a method-mix is recommendable, however, under the exclusion of event studies that fail to safeguard a minimum level of reliability of their results. Furthermore, the paper warns against overly optimistic expectations about the effects of systematic impact evaluations of merger decisions.

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Paper provided by Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics in its series Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers with number 75.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:75
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  1. Eckbo, B Espen & Wier, Peggy, 1985. "Antimerger Policy under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act: A Reexamination of the Market Power Hypothesis," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 119-49, April.
  2. Oliver Budzinski, 2009. "An international multilevel competition policy system," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 367-389, December.
  3. Duso, Tomaso & Guglery, Klaus & Szücs, Florian, 2010. "An Empirical Assessment of the 2004 EU Merger Policy Reform," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 337, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  4. Barton, David M & Sherman, Roger, 1984. "The Price and Profit Effects of Horizontal Merger: A Case Study," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 165-77, December.
  5. Hopkins, Yvette S. & Connor, John M., 1992. "A Re-Examination Of Event Studies Applied To Challenged Horizontal Mergers," Working Papers 116105, Regional Research Project NE-165 Private Strategies, Public Policies, and Food System Performance.
  6. Kara M. Reynolds, 2005. "Anticipated versus Realized Benefits: Can Event Studies Be Used To Predict the Impact of New Regulations?," International Trade 0512005, EconWPA.
  7. McAfee, R. Preston & Williams, Michael A., 1988. "Can event studies detect anticompetitive mergers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 199-203.
  8. Oliver Budzinski & Isabel Ruhmer, 2009. "Merger Simulation in Competition Policy: A Survey," Working Papers 82/09, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Environmental and Business Economics.
  9. Duso, Tomaso & Gugler, Klaus & Yurtoglu, Burcin B., 2006. "Is the Event Study Methodology Useful for Merger Analysis? A Comparison of Stock Market and Accounting Data," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 163, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  10. Sven-Olof Fridolfsson & Johan Stennek, 2010. "Industry Concentration and Welfare: On the Use of Stock Market Evidence from Horizontal Mergers," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(308), pages 734-750, October.
  11. Duso, Tomaso & Gugler, Klaus & Yurtoglu, Burcin B., 2011. "How effective is European merger control?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 980-1006.
  12. Ellert, James C, 1976. "Mergers, Antitrust Law Enforcement and Stockholder Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 715-32, May.
  13. Oliver Budzinski & Arndt Christiansen, 2007. "The Oracle/PeopleSoft Case: Unilateral Effects, Simulation Models and Econometrics in Contemporary Merger Control," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200702, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  14. Matthew Weinberg, 2007. "The Price Effects of Horizontal Mergers: A Survey," Working Papers 62, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  15. Buccirossi, Paolo & Ciari, Lorenzo & Duso, Tomaso & Spagnolo, Giancarlo & Vitale, Cristiana, 2009. "Measuring the deterrence properties of competition policy: The competition policy indexes," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation SP II 2009-15, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  16. Budzinski, Oliver & Wacker, Katharina, 2007. "The prohibition of the proposed Springer-ProSiebenSat.1-Merger: how much economics in German merger control?," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 160, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
  17. Aviv Nevo, 2000. "Mergers with Differentiated Products: The Case of the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(3), pages 395-421, Autumn.
  18. Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam & Budzinski, Oliver, 2012. "On the use of event studies to evaluate economic policy decisions: A note of caution," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 80, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
  19. Eckbo, B Espen, 1992. " Mergers and the Value of Antitrust Deterrence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1005-29, July.
  20. Peters, Craig, 2006. "Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the U.S. Airline Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 627-49, October.
  21. Farrell Joseph & Shapiro Carl, 2010. "Antitrust Evaluation of Horizontal Mergers: An Economic Alternative to Market Definition," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-41, March.
  22. Orley C. Ashenfelter & Daniel S. Hosken & Matthew C. Weinberg, 2011. "The Price Effects of a Large Merger of Manufacturers: A Case Study of Maytag-Whirlpool," NBER Working Papers 17476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Stillman, Robert, 1983. "Examining antitrust policy towards horizontal mergers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 225-240, April.
  24. Budzinski, Oliver, 2012. "The institutional framework for doing sports business: Principles of EU competition policy in sports markets," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 70, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
  25. Oliver Budzinski, 2010. "An Institutional Analysis of the Enforcement Problems in Merger Control," Working Papers 101/10, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Environmental and Business Economics.
  26. Budzinski, Oliver, 2012. "Empirische Ex-Post Evaluation von wettbewerbspolitischen Entscheidungen: Methodische Anmerkungen," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 69, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
  27. Brian Diepold & Robert M. Feinberg & David K.Round & Jeremy Tustin, 2007. "Merger Impacts on Investor Expectations: An Event Study for Australia," Working Papers 2007-07, American University, Department of Economics.
  28. Paolo Buccirossi & Lorenzo Ciari & Tomaso Duso & Sven-Olof Fridolfsson & Giancarlo Spagnolo & Cristiana Vitale, 2008. "A Short Overview of a Methodology for the Ex-Post Review of Merger Control Decisions," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 453-475, December.
  29. Pinkse, Joris & Slade, Margaret E., 2004. "Mergers, brand competition, and the price of a pint," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 617-643, June.
  30. Oliver Budzinski, 2009. "Modern Industrial Economics and Competition Policy: Open Problems and Possible Limits," Working Papers 93/09, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Environmental and Business Economics.
  31. Josef Drexl & Wolfgang Kerber & Rupprecht Podszun (ed.), 2011. "Competition Policy and the Economic Approach," Books, Edward Elgar, number 13786.
  32. Paul W. Dobson & Claudio A. Piga, 2009. "Mergers and Business Model Assimilation: Evidence from Low-Cost Airlines Takeovers," Discussion Paper Series 2009_2, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Feb 2009.
  33. Damien Neven & Hans Zenger, 2008. "Ex Post Evaluation of Enforcement: A Principal-Agent Perspective," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 477-490, December.
  34. Mats Bergman, 2008. "Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? or Measuring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Competition Enforcement," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 387-409, December.
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