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Multi-agent modeling and simulation of a sequential monetary production economy

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  • Marco Raberto
  • Silvano Cincotti

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a heterogeneous interacting agent model of a sequential monetary production economy. We use a basic dynamic flow model in an interacting agent context. The economy is assumed to be closed. There are three classes of agents: a single homogeneous representative consumer, heterogeneous firms and a banking system. Bounded rationality agents make decisions by optimizing an objective function based on expectations about the future formed on past data. There are three asset classes (or debts): a single homogeneous physical good, money and debt securities. The homogeneous commodity is produced by firms and, if saved, increases their capital stock. Firms issue debts to finance growth. Firms are homogeneous as regarding marginal costs of production but are heterogeneous relative to their objective functions. Firms make different investment decisions that can ultimately result in the firm's growth or bankruptcy. The income of the homogeneous consumer depends on wage earnings, interest on debt securities and firms profit. Consumers spend their income to purchase consumption goods and corporate debt; money is also considered a reserve of value. Portfolio allocation depends on the interest rate. The money supply is exogenous and is the main control parameter of the system. The model is able to reproduce endogenous large scale economic fluctuations by means of the interplay between money supply and the interactions of heterogeneous agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2004. "Multi-agent modeling and simulation of a sequential monetary production economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 260, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:260
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cincotti, Silvano & M. Focardi, Sergio & Marchesi, Michele & Raberto, Marco, 2003. "Who wins? Study of long-run trader survival in an artificial stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 227-233.
    2. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    3. Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
    4. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    5. Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti & Sergio Focardi & Michele Marchesi, 2003. "Traders' Long-Run Wealth in an Artificial Financial Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 255-272, October.
    6. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    8. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
    9. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Palestrini, Antonio, 2003. "Financial fragility, patterns of firms' entry and exit and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-97, May.
    10. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-566.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    heterogeneous agents; financial markets and the macroeconomy; computer simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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